Close games still the norm
NFL parity? No kidding. For the first time, 20 teams were 1-1 after the first two weeks of the NFL season,
Also indicative of that is the point spread in 12 of the 16 games, including the Thursday night contest, is four points or less, which translates to a lot of tough picks.
Green Bay at Seattle
Line: Packers 3 It’s always hard to figure out the Seattle Seahawks. But one thing is clear: They can run the ball. Led by Marshawn Lynch, Seattle has gone over 100 yards rushing in 10 of its last 11 games. The Seahawks had 182 yards last week against the Dallas Cowboys. At home, Lynch has six straight 100-yard rushing games.
The Green Bay Packers will sort that out. After losing to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, the Pack completely bottled up the Chicago Bears last week. Green Bay leads the NFL with 11 quarterback sacks.
Taking Green Bay
Pittsburgh at Oakland
Line: Pittsburgh 3-1/2 Pittsburgh linebacker James Harrison and safety Troy Polamalu did not take part in the Steelers’ final practice of the week and will not play Sunday at Oakland. That has driven the line down from five to 3-1/2. But Pittsburgh won comfortably without Harrison and Polamalu last week.
The Steelers, who have no running game, had hoped Rashard Mendenhall would be back, but he will not play.
The Raiders, who expected better things, have been lousy. And just where is Darren McFadden, who has rushed 26 times for just 54 yards?
Oakland, which rushed for negative yards in the second half of both games, can’t stop the other team from running the ball either, as the Miami Dolphins’ Reggie Bush showed last week, picking up 172 yards.
Without Mendenhall, the Steelers have rushed for only 141 yards while averaging just 2.6 yards per carry.
The Raiders have both cornerbacks injured and now have to try to stop Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace and likely Heath Miller.
The stats aren’t good for either team as Pittsburgh has failed to cover its last five road games while Oakland is just 1-8 at home off a straight-up (SU) loss in which they were the favourite. Taking Pittsburgh minus the points
Tampa Bay at Dallas
Line: Dallas 8 Just who are the Dallas Cowboys? The team that looked solid defeating the New York Giants, or the weak team that lost to Seattle?
Dallas really struggled last week. It had 112 total yards in the first quarter but, after turning the ball over three times in the first nine minutes and then a punt block returned by Seattle for a TD, Dallas had only 184 yards the rest of the way. Fifty-one of those yards came in the final minute.
Dallas should pick apart a very suspect Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary.
The Cowboys are 7-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games versus NFC South opponents, and 4-0 in their last four games against Tampa and last four home games against the Bucs. Another interesting stat at play shows Dallas 6-0 as favourites of 10 or less after coming off a double-digit loss. Taking Dallas minus the points.
Philadelphia at Arizona
Line: Eagles 3 Maybe Arizona isn’t that bad after all. Flying way under the radar, the Cardinals have won nine of their last 11 games. While their offence has issues, there is certainly nothing wrong with their defence, which allowed only 18 points in a shocking upset of the New England Patriots when they sacked Tom Brady four times and didn’t give up a touchdown until just over four minutes were left. That defensive showing has been par for the course given that Arizona hasn’t allowed more than 23 points over its last 11 games, helping the Cards go 9-2.
The Philadelphia Eagles, with six new starters and rookies in three key spots, have also won with defence and despite Michael Vick’s interceptions. Taking the Eagles minus the field goal
St. Louis at Chicago
Line: Chicago 7-1/2 The St. Louis Rams exit a win over the Washington Redskins and a spread cover against the Detroit Lions. Chicago Bears QB Jay Cutler came unglued last week — shoving and getting in the face of left tackle J’Marcus Webb — after throwing four interceptions and getting sacked seven times.
Bears running back Matt Forte is out, which is big because the Rams will play pass and dare Chicago to run.
The stats point to Chicago, which is 8-2 at home off a straight-up loss to a divisional opponent. The Bears are also 4-1 in their last five games against St. Louis, which sat running back Steven Jackson for most of the final three quarters last week. I’m taking the Rams and the points largely because of Cutler’s meltdown. He, more than anyone, knows how bad his offensive line is.
Kansas City at New Orleans
Line: Saints 9 Two teams without a defence. Both have allowed 75 points, while New Orleans also gave up 922 yards to QBs Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III.
The Saints can still score, putting up 32 points against the Washington Redskins and 27 against the Carolina Panthers, but they still have two losses. The stats are mixed.
It’s a lot of points to be giving, but the Chiefs’ injuries are too much to ignore. Taking New Orleans minus the points