It’s not 1968 and Justin is not Pierre

What is Justin Trudeau’s position on whether Canada should contribute to an international stabilization fund for the purpose of resolving the euro crisis? Does he agree that any final status settlement in the Middle East should be based on 1967 borders? How would he amend, if at all, the “net benefit” test applied to foreign takeovers in Canada?

Which would he say was the highest priority at the moment, reducing the deficit to reassure financial markets, or increasing the deficit to provide fiscal stimulus? Does he believe Canada’s defence needs require a fifth-generation fighter jet, such as the F-35, with stealth capacity suitable for deep strikes into enemy territory, or would he favour a less expensive fighter, designed for patrolling Canadian airspace? Or should we replace manned fighters with drones?

To ask these questions is to answer them: nobody knows. I don’t know what Trudeau thinks on these issues, and neither do you. Nor does the media, nor the Liberal party, nor, I’m guessing, Justin himself. It isn’t just that he has never, so far as I am aware, made any significant public statement on any of them — or on any others, outside of Quebec and a few personal hobby horses. It’s that it’s difficult even to imagine him doing so.

Perhaps I’m being unfair. Perhaps there are hidden depths to Justin, waiting to be revealed. The point is, we don’t know — as indeed we know very little about him generally, notwithstanding his lifelong celebrity. We don’t know a great deal about his character or judgment — though what glimpses we have been given raise doubts about both: his bizarre objections to a government document’s description of female genital mutilation as a “barbaric” practice; his scatology in Parliament; his musings that a Canada led by Stephen Harper might cause him to support the separation of Quebec, and his petulant performance when called out on it.

We have no idea what kind of leader he would make for the Liberal party. We don’t know what his plans are to rebuild the party, or what direction he would take it, or where he would concentrate its meagre resources. We have a hint of his tenacity — winning the nomination and then the election in Papineau, beating Patrick Brazeau in a boxing match — but we don’t know whether he has what it takes generally to be a leader: whether he can build a team, inspire their loyalty, betray it when he has to. We know nothing of his strategic sense, his ability to spot a political opening, exploit an opponent’s weakness, or strike a prudent compromise.

What we do know is that he has very little experience of the kind that would prepare him for such a job. Comparisons to his father, elected leader after just three years in Parliament, are fatuous: Pierre Trudeau had been minister of justice, and before that a professor of law and an intellectual force in Quebec politics for more than decade. Justin has been a highschool teacher.

But none of this matters, apparently. All that we need to know is that he has a famous name, a pretty face and 150,000 Twitter followers. On that, and on that alone, the media has declared him the winner of a leadership race that has not yet even formally begun, and will not be decided until April. And on that same slim basis, a good many Liberals seem prepared to hand him the crown. Imagine if the Democratic Party had nominated John-John for president, and you have a close parallel. Now imagine they had done so without even knowing who else was in the race.

I cannot believe the Liberal party would be so rash. I do not mean that he will not win. I do not even mean that he should not win. Perhaps, as I say, he will surprise us, displaying a political shrewdness, and a maturity, we had not previously suspected. But he cannot do so if he is not put to the test of a vigorous campaign. For the Liberal party to do otherwise, for it to throw itself at his feet without the merest vetting, would confirm the worst fears about the party: that it had no raison d’être, no ideals or ambitions, but had descended into little more than a personality cult. Far from building for the long term, it would have succumbed to the pressure to produce short-term results, with the probable consequence of neither.

A lot of people who should know better seem to have persuaded themselves that it is 1968 all over again. Among other things, that’s unfair to Justin, who is his own man and who is running, I am sure, for the best of reasons, but on whom many others seem to want to project their own fantasies. But the son is not the father, and the future is not buried in the past. Postscript: As many readers will know, I am the cousin of Deborah Coyne, who is also a candidate for Liberal leader. I do not believe that should have any influence on my assessments of the race or the candidates. But having put the matter on the public record, I will leave you to form your own judgment.