Cards worse than the Lions

Lions at Cardinals

Line: Detroit 6 The Lions found another way to lose last week letting the Green Bay Packers claw back in for a win after Detroit raced to a 14-0 lead. It was the third consecutive game where the Lions have blown at least a 10-point lead.

But this is against the Arizona Cardinals, who don’t have a quarterback or an offence. And, they exit a humiliating 58-0 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, a team Detroit defeated earlier this year.

In Arizona’s last two games, the Cardinals have a total of just 15 first downs and 291 yards of offence. By comparison, Detroit has had 48 first downs and 838 combined yards in its last two games.

Taking Detroit

Packers at Bears

Line: Green Bay 3 All signs point to Green Bay. The Packers have won five straight against Chicago — covering four of them, including a 23-10 win over the Bears in Week 2. That was a game where the Packers got to Chicago QB Jay Cutler seven times in a dominant victory, and that was when the Bears were healthy.

Chicago opened the season 7-1, but has now lost two straight and four of its last five. That’s very similar to what happened to the Bears last year when they got off to a 7-3 start but finished just 1-5 to miss the playoffs.

Green Bay has also won 11 straight divisional games, covering all four this season. They are also 15-2 against the spread (ATS) when favoured by seven points or less when playing divisional rivals.

Taking Green Bay

Steelers at Cowboys

Line: Pittsburgh 2 Ben Roethlisberger is back, but his return last week wasn’t near enough to defeat the San Diego Chargers. Pittsburgh fell 34-24, and that was despite two late, meaningless Steelers touchdowns.

But then, Pittsburgh has been a weird team to try to predict this season. They look good one week and then they lose to teams like the Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and, last week, to the Chargers. With cornerback Ike Taylor out, Chargers QB Philip Rivers picked on youngsters Curtis Brown and Cortez Allen — mostly on simple out patterns. Dallas QB Tony Romo has obviously seen the tape and will duplicate it.

With left guard Willie Colon undergoing knee surgery this week, the Steelers had to shuffle their offensive line last week with not very good results.

Taking Dallas

49ers at Patriots

Line: New England 5-1/2 Obviously, an intriguing matchup with the highestscoring offence in the NFL — the New England Patriots — pitted against the San Francisco 49ers, who have allowed the fewest points.

The Patriots don’t lose in December. Two for two so far this year, including last week’s statement game against the Houston Texans, the Patriots have won 20 straight December games. Furthermore, the Pats are 21-0 in the season’s second halves.

New England is also 10-1-1 ATS as non-conference favourites of six or fewer points.

San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick gives the 49ers another dimension, his ability to run. But when you look at his last two games — and consider the opponents — you see a 49er team that hasn’t performed nearly as well as it did earlier this year.

A big key for the 49ers is that the NFL’s sack leader, Aldon Smith, has to get pressure on Tom Brady.

Taking New England

Buccaneers at Saints

Line: Saints 4 The New Orleans Saints have 11 turnovers in their last three games, which pretty much sums up their season. New Orleans has now lost three straight. It’s much the same for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have also lost three in a row. While they are solid against the run, Tampa appears hopeless against the pass, allowing 311.6 passing yards per game.

As bad as Drew Brees has looked the last three weeks, Tampa’s young (outside of Ronde Barber) secondary is in for another jolt.

Taking New Orleans

Vikings at Rams

Line: St. Louis 2 Minnesota is running back Adrian Peterson. Last week against Chicago, Peterson ran for 154 yards while Christian Ponder threw for a net 77 yards. That’s hardly unusual. Over the last six games, Ponder has thrown for 136 fewer yards than Peterson has run.

Minnesota is like Seattle in that the Vikings don’t win away from home. They are 1-5 this year and have lost 12 of their last 15 games outside of Minnesota. The Rams have won three straight despite only scoring four offensive touchdowns during their winning streak. I’m taking the Rams.