‘New World’ pope would be a milestone
Despite favourites, election to succeed Benedict is wide open
VATICAN CITY — Rome is agog over the possibility that, for the first time, the pope could come from a nation that the Vatican still regards as part of the New World.
A Canadian, an Argentine, a Brazilian, a Mexican, a Filipino, an African, and even a few Americans are thought to be in the mix when the 115 cardinal electors finally begin voting Tuesday in the Sistine Chapel on Benedict’s successor. Also rated a chance are a Hungarian, an Austrian and, as always, a couple of Italians, although they have been shut out of the papal sweepstakes for 35 years now.
All of this is guesswork, of course. The election, which begins with one ballot Tuesday and four ballots a day after that until a winner is declared, is conducted in absolute secrecy and is famously unpredictable.
Virtually everything written and said about who is up and who is down in the undeclared campaign to become the next spiritual leader of the Roman Catholic Church is derivative.
It has mostly been based on the opinions and hunches of a handful of obsessive Vaticanistas whose life work is deciphering the holy smoke. Aside from a few Europeans and Americans, these shapers of global opinion on the papal conclave are Italians journalists.
Although they disagree on many things, what all the Vaticanistas agree on is that it is far more different this time around than when the German favourite, Joseph Ratzinger, became Pope Benedict after just four ballots in 2005 and the Pole, Karol Wojtyla, was unexpectedly elected Pope John Paul II after eight ballots in 1978 when the conclave could not decide between two Italian cardinals.
Everything still seems to favour the Europeans on paper. Sixty of the 115 cardinal electors are from Europe, while only 19 are far Latin America, where 40 per cent of the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics live. North America has 14 cardinal elections, three of whom are Canadian while 11 are Africans with 13 others coming from Australasia.
Among the considerations are age, with the victor most likely to be someone between his mid-60s and early 70s. Having all been appointed by Benedict or John Paul, who were conservatives, the differences between the cardinals are mostly ones of style, not substance. They have few differences on issues such as abortion, homosexuality or opening up the priesthood to women.
The consensus — if there is one on the eve of the balloting — is that there are two frontrunners. They are Cardinal Odilo Scherer of Brazil and Cardinal Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, with a few others such as Canada’s Marc Ouellet thought to be not too far behind.
With a two-thirds majority, plus one vote, required for victory, it is possible that Scherer and Scola, who may be regarded as representing the old and new guards of the Church, could be become deadlocked at some point on the second or third day of balloting, with each of them stuck at between 50 and 70 votes. In such a scenario, the race might suddenly broaden, as it did when a similar stalemate resulted in Cardinal Wojtyla unexpectedly emerging as a third option.
Cardinal Scherer, 63, appeals to those princes of the church who seek someone with a global vision to lead them. Other than being from a country where Catholicism remains hugely important, one of the Brazilian’s perceived strengths is that he is not tainted by the shortcomings of the Vatican. His parents are German and he still has strong relations there.
Cardinal Scola, 71, is an intellectual and brilliant theologian like Benedict. But the Italian is very much a Vatican insider at a time when that may be a handicap because the bureaucracy’s Italian overseers have been accused of incompetence.
The odds of Ouellet winning have lengthened a bit perhaps since Benedict’s shock resignation four weeks ago. This may be because of a perception that the 68-year-old Quebecker believes the job may not be suited to his emotional temperament. But Ouellet speaks seven languages, is well regarded in Latin America after having spent nearly a decade teaching in Colombia, is regarded as being intellectual and has some experience in Rome, but not so much for him to be identified with the church’s much-maligned administration.
Ouellet’s refusal to back down over issues regarding abortion and sexuality may have been controversial at home, but holding such views may actually help him in conclave because almost all of the cardinals agree with him on such issues.
Other possible names to look out for when the world hears the words: “Habemus Papem!” or “We have a pope” include: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 55, of the Philippines, who is a gifted evangelizer and the church’s “rock star” in Asia; Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, 69, of Argentina, the son of Italians who has spent 42 years as a diplomat for the Holy See; Cardinal Peter Erdo, 60, of Hungary, who was appointed by Pope John Paul II and is similar to him in outlook; Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who is deeply conservative; and Cardinal Francisco Robles Ortega, 64, of Mexico, who may be the only moderate among the dozen or so contenders.
Several Americans have also been mentioned in recent days in the Italian and U.S. media, but whether this is because they are truly considered “papabili,” or because they have generated a lot of publicity for themselves in Rome remains to be seen.