Smid, Petry under microscope as Oilers’ shutdown pair
One of the keys of the Edmonton Oilers’ season is whether the defence pairing of Ladislav Smid and Jeff Petry can play strong hockey against strong competition, just as they did in the final months of last season.
It’s essential that an NHL team have a shutdown pair that can hold its own against the Anze Kopitars, the Ryan Getzlafs and the Sedin brothers of the league. Smid and Petry did just that in the second half of the 2011-12 season. They both played sound positional and occasionally fierce defensive hockey in that span, while moving the puck effectively out of the Oilers zone.
So far this season, however, the results have been much more mixed. Smid has done OK, but Petry has struggled, at least up until a recent run of strong games.
Smid’s case is the more topical of the two at the moment, as the Oilers face a tough decision, signing him now for a reasonable amount or trading him at the deadline, lest the 27-yearold Czech defender walk away for nothing as an unrestricted free agent in July.
Of course, Smid isn’t Chris Pronger in his prime. He’s no Shea Weber. He’s not a toppairing ace. But he’s certainly as effective as Jason Smith or Steve Staios were in their primes. If the Oilers lose him, it will be a blow to the rebuild.
Smid has never been much of a scorer, with just 61 points in 438 NHL games. But if an NHL defenceman is doing his job, he will chip in on about one scoring chance for every chance he makes a mistake on. Smid met that test last season, when he was +5 on scoring chances. This year, he’s at -15. He’s slipped a bit, but the entire team has slipped a lot defensively as a whole. He’s not close to being the main culprit.
Here are the scoring chances plus-minus numbers for Oilers defenders for the past three seasons: 2012-13: Justin Schultz, +7; Corey Potter +4; Nick Schultz -5; Smid, -15; Mark Fistric, -18. Ryan Whitney, -23; Petry -31. 2011-12: Tom Gilbert, +19; N. Schultz, +11; Smid +5; Petry -5; Andy Sutton -33; Barker -37; Potter -40; Whitney -41; Colten Teubert, -51; Theo Peckham, -88. 2010-11: Gilbert, +15; Whitney +7; Petry even; Smid -15; Jason Strudwick, -48; Peckham, -49; Jim Vandermeer, -68; Kurtis Foster, -77.
Smid is primarily a defensive d-man, his job to stop opposition attacks, then quickly move the puck to Petry or a winger to get the counter-attack going. So how well does he stop those opposition attacks?
Here are the number of mistakes on scoring chances against per 15 minutes of even strength time made by each Oilers d-man in the past three seasons: 2012-13: Potter, 1.46 mistakes on chances per 15; Justin Schultz, 2.08; Smid, 2.29; Fistric, 2.54; N. Schutlz, 2.61; Petry, 2.75; Whitney, 2.98. 2011-12: N. Schultz, 1.71; Smid, 1.84; Gilbert, 1.94; Potter, 2.10; Sutton, 2.34; Barker, 2.49; Petry, 2.62; Whitney, 2.82; Peckham, 2.95; Teubert, 3.56. 2010-11: Petry, 1.67; Smid, 1.93; Whitney, 2.06; Gilbert, 2.17; Peckham, 2.18; Strudwick, 2.32; Foster, 2.79; Vandermeer, 2.81.
When we look at these numbers we see solid performances by the unheralded Potter this year and Petry in 2010-11, but you have to remember these two d-men have done well defensively against weak competition. It’s the defencemen who face the toughest competition who have the real challenge — and real value if they succeed.
And Smid, generally speaking, has succeeded.
When it comes to his dollar value, if you look at other veteran defencemen who block a lot of shots, make a lot of hits, have little offensive oomph, and get on the ice versus tough competition, the going rate is $3.3- to $3.8-million per year. Smid’s next contract should be in that range.
As for Petry, he’s got a weak scoring chances plus-minus this year overall, but he’s played much better in the last two weeks. In his first 23 games, he was -34. In the last past six, he’s been a solid +3.
The most likely explanation for Petry’s tough run is that he was rusty after the lockout. You have to be at the top of your game to play strong hockey against strong competition. Petry just wasn’t there yet. He appears to be now, which is vital for any Oilers playoff run.