2013 NHL entry draft: Who to pick, busts, gems
This is supposed to be a piece about the importance of the NHL draft, but, before going any further, here’s something to consider.
Yes, the draft is important. It’s just not as important as most people think.
Postmedia News has conducted two extensive studies of each team’s draft record; the first covering the period from 1994 to 2004, the second from 2000 to 2009.
Each team’s picks were rated on a fourpoint system with four points awarded to a superstar (Evgeni Malkin, Pavel Datsyuk), three to an impact player (Shane Doan, Dan Hamhuis), two to an NHL regular (Jannik Hansen, Tom Gilbert) and one to a player who makes the NHL but never establishes himself permanently (Jordan Schroeder).
Team’s batting averages (quantity of drafted players who make the NHL) and slugging percentages (quality) are then determined. Here’s what was revealed. The team with the most successful draft record from 1994 to 2004 was the San Jose Sharks. From 2000 to 2009, it was the Montreal Canadiens. These two teams share another thing. They both won the same number of Stanley Cup over that period: zero.
There was some correlation between draft success and on-ice success. It just wasn’t as strong as most people think.
Boston and Chicago, the two teams in the Stanley Cup final, both had good grades in the second study. But they were surpassed by the Canadiens, Buffalo, Nashville and the Rangers.
In the earlier study, the Sabres and Senators graded out highly. The dominant teams of that era — Detroit, New Jersey, Dallas — were just so-so although Colorado was in the top-10 in both batting average and slugging percentage.
Detroit, regarded as the NHL’s best drafting team, was average in both studies. The Red Wings’ strength is finding players in the mid- to later-rounds and plugging them into their system. Unfortunately, they didn’t get any extra credit for that. So what does all that teach us? Well, drafting is a major plank in any organization’s structure but it’s not the only one. Player development is equally important. So is managing the players who’ve been drafted. They all fit under the same umbrella. It’s just drafting gets the most attention.
“You have to have a certain amount of raw material, but development is more important,” says Al Murray, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s director of amateur scouting.
“Why do some players turn out and others don’t? It has to do with the director of player development and the work they do after they’re drafted.”
“You have to draft well but you have to develop, you have to make trades, you have to sign free agents,” says Paul Fenton, Nashville’s assistant general manager.
“Drafting is just one piece of the puzzle, but if you don’t draft well, you can’t do the other things well. That’s why we always talk about taking the best asset.”
Those assets, in turn, give organizations flexibility and allows them to make other moves. Over the years, the Red Wings have been able to make deals while replenishing their organization.
This year, Boston and Pittsburgh flipped for significant assets at the trade deadline, with Jaromir Jagr going to the Bruins and Brenden Morrow and Jarome Iginla going to the Pens.
“The asset is the big thing,” says one scout. “If you draft a player who can’t play, he’s not an asset for you or anyone else.”