Iran’s regime won’t evolve
Iranian people were forced this month to observe the inauguration of Hasan Rouhani, the Islamic Republic’s newlyinstalled president. I use the term “installed” rather than “elected.” Under the ayatollahs’ strict vetting process, Rouhani was one of only eight candidates allowed to run for office. That some pundits continue to opine that Rouhani is a potential reformer is an insult to the genuine movement for Iranian democracy.
Vain hopes for “change from within” only lead the international community down the time-worn path of naivety toward Iran. Moreover, they ultimately ignore the voices of thousands of Iranian democracy activists who have been arrested or forced to flee the country since the Islamic revolution — my own family included.
Thanks to my parents’ quick thinking and resourcefulness, I was able to flee Iran as a child in 1987. Having lived under a regime fixated on external war and internal repression, I am grateful to be a Canadian today. At the same time, I continue to grieve for the fact that nothing has changed in Iran.
The Iranian regime continues to publicly stone women, hang homosexuals, imprison Christians and Bahais and torture political opponents. Those who would hope for Rouhaniled change need look no further than the 100 executions that have taken place since the election in June. Rouhani has done nothing to end the ayatollahs’ human rights abuses for one simple reason: he’s been by their side, a true believer in the revolution, since the 1960s.
Having served as chairman of the Supreme National Security Council from 1989 to 2005, Rouhani is believed to have overseen Iran’s involvement in terror attacks stretching from South America to Saudi Arabia.
In keeping with this record, he has effectively doubled down on Iran’s role — including financial, military, and moral support — in the horrific Syrian civil war that has now claimed 100,000 lives. Just weeks ago, Iranian state media reported that Rouhani sent letters of solidarity to Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and his operational partner (and terrorist ally) Hezbollah. It’s no wonder Hezbollah leader Sheikh Nasrallah applauded Rouhani’s rise to power, declaring: “Every fighter who resists for God consider(s) you today a beacon of hope.”
Hope is as intoxicating as any drug; absent moderation, it detaches one from reality.
Here in the West, hopeful talk of reform has all too often obscured the unfortunate reality of life in Iran today. We observe in horror the regime’s human rights abuses at home and sponsorship of terrorism abroad. We read reports from the UN’s atomic energy regulator on Iran’s continued illegal nuclear program, with signs of weaponization.
And yet, some in the West entertain the notion that Rouhani could be open to reform. Such a sad fantasy overlooks the fact that, in Iran, the buck starts and stops with the ayatollahs. Changes in the presidency are nothing more than cosmetic.
That Rouhani will not openly deny the Holocaust as did his predecessor is not a sign of moderation, but rather concern for the regime’s cash flow. Rouhani no doubt understands that such flagrant displays of hatred only isolate the regime further, and that distancing himself from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will go a long way toward seeding doubt among Western governments about the sanctions program.
To that end, analysts have reported that Rouhani himself admitted that nuclear negotiations — in which he played a lead role in 2003 — were a diplomatic veil for continuing development. As Rouhani said in a 2004 speech to the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council: “While we were talking with the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing equipment in parts of the (nuclear) facility in Isfahan. By creating a calm environment, we were able to complete the work there.”
Shifting rhetoric for strategic purposes is very different from changing policy — and nothing has changed when it comes to human rights, terrorism, Syria or the nuclear program. In each of these areas the ayatollahs will call the shots just as they have since 1979.
Rouhani’s continued tenure will only serve to expose his commitment to the revolution, and the fact that there are no genuine reformers to be found within the Islamic regime.