Record crops of wheat and canola likely, analysts say

WINNIPEG — Canadian farmers may harvest the most wheat ever and produce the largest canola crop on record, according to a government survey.

All-wheat production will probably expand to 33 million tonnes, up from July’s forecast of 30.6 million tonnes, Statistics Canada said Friday. Wheat production is forecast to rise from 27.1 million tonnes in 2012 and exceed the record harvest of 32.1 million tonnes in 1990.

The average production estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was 32.7 million tonnes.

The canola harvest in Canada, the world’s largest grower, may climb 15.9 per cent to 16 million tonnes, up from July’s forecast of 14.7 million tonnes and surpassing the record output of 14.6 million tonnes in 2011, according to the report. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey forecast 16.4 million tonnes.

Statistics Canada said it interviewed about 10,500 farmers from Sept. 3 to 10. The estimate excludes production in British Columbia and the Atlantic Provinces, which account for two to four per cent of the national total, the agency said.

Record yields are being reported for crops in many areas and the market won’t be surprised if canola production exceeds 16 million tonnes, Chuck Penner, the owner of LeftField Commodity Research, said by telephone from Winnipeg before the report.

“It’s safe to say 2013 is going to be one to remember,” he said.

The average wheat yield is forecast to be a record 48 bushels per acre, Statistics Canada said, up from 42.6 bushels per acre in 2012.

While planting in many parts of Western Canada was delayed this spring by excess moisture and below-normal temperatures, farmers managed to sow most of their crop by mid-June, according to reports from Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the largest grower of spring wheat.

Average to above-average yields of spring wheat are being reported in Saskatchewan and output in Alberta is “exceptional,” according to provincial reports.