Edmonton is job central in Canada

Just how hot is the Edmonton region’s jobs juggernaut?

Well, consider this: “Over the past year, fully one of every 10 new jobs created in Canada has been created in the metro Edmonton region,” says John Rose, the city’s chief economist. “That’s truly remarkable.”

With a population of 1.2 million people, this region accounts for just 3.4 per cent of Canada’s 35 million residents.

Yet it generated new jobs at a pace on par with a region of 3.5 million people, roughly the size of greater Montreal.

The latest monthly jobs figures, issued Friday by Statistics Canada, show the Edmonton region gained 3,000 new jobs in November, reversing a decline of the same magnitude in October.

Over the past year, the region has gained nearly 18,000 new full-time jobs.

Alberta created 78,100 new jobs, accounting for nearly 44 per cent of Canada’s total employment gains.

Although the local unemployment rate ticked up — to 5.1 per cent in November from 4.2 per cent a year earlier, due to a big surge of newcomers — it’s still among the lowest in Canada. Alberta’s jobless rate sits at 4.7 per cent, second lowest behind Saskatchewan’s 4.1-percent rate.

“We’ve had absolutely remarkable employment growth in the Edmonton area over the course of 2012 and 2013,” says Rose, who was on hand Thursday for the Economics Society of Northern Alberta’s (ESNA) 2014 outlook conference.

“We’ve seen a very significant run-up in full-time employment, and that has more than made up for the fact that part-time employment has been falling. Quite frankly, I wasn’t feeling too optimistic about November, because we’d had such strong growth.

“But to see growth return after the dip in October is excellent.”

It’s not just the pace of employment growth that has Rose excited. It’s also the key factors that are driving it, and what that’s likely to mean for the year ahead.

“The gains in full-time employment and the significant run-up in incomes is beginning to feed through to the consumer side of the economy. So we’re seeing employment growth beginning to pivot away from manufacturing, construction and professional services to sectors like retail, personal services and education.

‘There is such momentum now that we can be very confident growth will continue in 2014.’ JOHN ROSE , CITY OF EDMONTON CHIEF ECONOMIST

“There is such momentum now that we can be very confident growth will continue in 2014.”

Rose expects GDP growth of just under four per cent for the Edmonton region next year, and between three and 3.5 per cent for the city proper, which is more heavily reliant on the steady-as-she-- goes government, health and education sectors.

That’s light years above the anemic growth rates for Canada as a whole.

The Bank of Canada expects national GDP growth of just 2.3 per cent for 2014, while Stefane Marion, National Bank of Canada’s chief economist, is calling for growth of just 2.2 per cent next year.

Alberta’s economic engine shows no signs of sputtering. Despite the usual angst over oil prices, pipeline bottlenecks and project cost over- runs, the province remains Canada’s economic star.

“We don’t have the final GDP numbers for 2013 yet but we’re probably tracking real GDP growth at 2.8 per cent or maybe three per cent, and I actually see that picking up a little bit to maybe 3.5 per cent in 2014,” said Todd Hirsch, ATB Financial’s chief economist, who was among the headline speakers at the ESNA conference.

Although no one expects oil prices to soar — both Marion and Hirsch say the price of West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark U.S. grade of light crude, will likely trade between a low of about $85 US and a high of $100 US a barrel in 2014 — the weaker loonie is expected to boost cash flows and keep drilling programs and oilsands projects on track.

At the same time, manufacturing — a key sector in the Edmonton region’s economy — is expected to pick up, particularly if one or more of the proposed new oil pipelines finally gain some traction. But if they don’t, Rose warns that the current upbeat outlook for the provincial economy could change quickly.

“If we don’t get some good news on one or more of the four major pipeline proposals that are out there, I think you’ll see a very soft and squishy 2015 for sure, and it would raise question marks in terms of our growth profile as a province over the next five to six years.”