Homes outside city expected to be top sellers

Realtors also forecast sales growth for condos and duplexes in 2014

While sales of single-family homes in Edmonton will plateau in 2014, sales of homes outside the city and condos will see growth, according to the annual housing forecast by the Realtors Association of Edmonton.

The value of total Multiple Listing Service sales in 2014 will increase by about three per cent over $8 billion in 2013, based on higher sales and prices, said association president Greg Steele.

Single-family-home sales in Edmonton will be static, at about 10,500, because of a current shortage of resale inventory and an active new-home market. But MLS sales in outlying communities will increase by about 1,000 units.

Steele said that may have something to do with lower land costs outside the city.

“To get a home in Edmonton in the $400,000 range, you may save $5,000 to $10,000 by going to the outer areas, but is it more convenient for your family to do that?”

Sales of condos, duplexes and row houses are expected to increase by 2.5 per cent throughout the region.

“As housing prices have risen, condos have become the de facto entry point for first-time homebuyers,” Steele said. “The ratio of condos to single-family homes will rise as we see more young couples and families getting into the condo market.”

Home prices are expected to continue a slow, steady upward trend, eventually setting a new all-time peak average price. The association predicts the 12-month average price of single-family homes to go up three per cent to $422,000 in 2014, compared to $409,824 in 2013.

Condo prices have been rising slower than single-family homes as prices are under pressure from a growing supply of downtown units, Steele said. The forecast calls for a 12-month average condo price of $246,000 in 2014, up two per cent from $241,377 last year.

City of Edmonton chief economist John Rose said the Edmonton housing market has solid fundamentals.

“My concern is that a downturn in the housing markets in other parts of Canada will spook consumers here in Edmonton,” Rose said. “People will start paying attention to the fact there’s an issue somewhere else and average Canadian housing prices, whatever that means, are coming down and be hesitant to make the investments they should be making here in Edmonton reflective of the very solid fundamentals we have.”