Yakupov’s game is not falling apart
Russian hasn’t played well but he’s not that bad
Controversy flares up around Nail Yakupov like potholes on spring streets.
One prominent hockey commentator, TSN’s Darren Dreger, is blasting Yakupov harshly. Another one, former NHL general manager Craig Button, is blasting Yak’s head coach Dallas Eakins. Most fans simply wonder what is up with Yakupov’s game.
With so much heated rhetoric, it’s perhaps best to focus briefly on Yakupov’s cold, hard numbers.
On the face of it, the numbers aren’t good, but when you drill down, it’s evident Yakupov hasn’t gone so far off track.
Much is made of the fact that Yakupov’s point totals and plus-minus totals have cratered.
Yakupov has 24 points in 63 games this year, just 0.38 points per game. He was far more productive last year, 31 points in 48 games, 0.65 points per game.
Even more eye-popping, Yakupov now stands at -33 foreven-strengthplus-minus this year. That is down in Patrick O’Sullivan territory and the worst plus-minus total in the entire NHL. Last year, Yakupov was at -4, not good but about average on the Oilers.
Such hideous numbers are pushing some to criticize the 20-year-old Yakupov. Dreger, for one, is decidedly down on the Russian. “Word is ou tthat Nail Yakupov is available (in a trade). The problem is, no one really wants him,” Dreger said last week. “And you can see why. He’s an NHL worst -30. He lacks commitment. He thinks that skill is enough to be an NHL player. And the unfortunate reality for Nail Yakupov is that, yes, he’s a skilled player, but not an elite level skill player.”
The good news? Yakupov’s fancy stats are far less alarming.
Let’s start with Yakupov’s shots-at-net plus-minus, which in advanced stats circles is known as his Corsi percentage.
This year, according to ExtraSkater.com, Yakupov has been on the ice for 628 shots at net for, 770 against. That gives him an even strength Corsi percentage of 44.9 per cent (if his shotsat-net for and against were even, he’d be at 50).
Last year, Yakupov was 421 shots-at-net for, 570 against, giving him a Corsi of 42.5 per cent.
Corsi numbers indicate Yak is actually playing better two way hockey this year, keeping in mind his Corsi totals have had a boost from him being out for a higher percentage of offensive zone faceoffs this year compared to last year.
Of course, there’s a flaw with Corsi, the same flaw that exists with goals plusminus. Such plus-numbers aren’t really Yakupov’s personal numbers as they are earned by all the players on the ice when he is playing. The numbers don’t dig in and show us exactly what Yakupov’s contributions are to goals and shots-at-net for and against.
When we do that drilling, however, we see a similar pattern, that Yak’s game isn’t great but not falling apart.
This year, Yakupov has made some pass, shot or screen to contribute to 2.9 scoring chances per game at even strength. He’s lost some battles, turned over the puck or blown some assignment on 1.3 scoring chances per game.
These numbers are very close to his rookie season, when he contributed to 2.8 scoring chances per game and made mistakes on 1.3 chances against.
His individual scoring chances plus-minus per game is +1.7 this year, a slight improvement over last year when he was +1.5 per game.
To put his numbers in context, here are the scoring chances plus-minus numbers per game last year and this year for Hall, Eberle, Hemsky: Hall, +3.7 last year, +2.2 this year; Eberle +4.0, +1.9; Hemsky +1.5, +2.0; Yakupov, +1.5, +1.7.
What’s really changed for Yakupov is his puck luck in shooting. He’s scored on just nine per cent of his shots this year compared to 20 per cent last year.
Most certainly, Yakupov has work to do, but the drop in Hall and Eberle’s two-way production has been far more dramatic. This is why Button is now standing up for Yakupov and other Oilers players, saying on local radio the problem isn’t them so much as it is Eakins.
“Nail Yakupov has to take responsibility, but the responsibility doesn’t lie solely in that area ... (Eakins) hasn’t helped this team play to its capabilities,” Button said on the Oilers Now show. “I don’t care what he says. I don’t care how he wants to frame it. That’s how I view it. He’s largely responsible for this team under-performing.”