Five things to watch for
What Albertans should expect from the PCs in the post-Redford era
Unpopular policies
Alberta’s interim premier Dave Hancock says he will continue down the path Alison Redford’s leadership paved, meaning when it comes to unpopular policies, the government will be doubling down at least until the Progressive Conservatives elect a new leader. What that means is government will follow through on its intention to reform public-sector pensions and will appeal a court-ordered injunction against the wildly controversial Bill 46 — the Public Sector Salary Restraint Act — which would impose an austere wage deal on tens of thousands of provincial employees. The fight over that law, in particular, will heat up next month when the Alberta Union of Provincial Employees continues its bad-faith bargaining complaint against the Alberta government at the provincial Labour Relations Board. Hancock will remain interim leader through the end of the spring legislative session and says the legislature will pass the 2014 budget, which has been criticized by the Wildrose for adding to Alberta’s debt and by the NDP and Liberals for failing to offset the massive cuts to social services and education seen in the 2013.
Leadership process
In 2012 the Tories changed their leadership selection after complaints the process made it too easy for outsider candidates such as Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford. Neither Stelmach nor Redford were the top choice of their party and had to rely on secondchoice votes to win, leading them to be branded as “compromise” or “underdog” premiers.
The new format simplifies the process by sending just two candidates to the final ballot and asking voters to pick only their top choice. Yet some in the party are wondering whether this change is enough. There are calls to remove the general public’s ability to participate and instead have a small group of PC delegates choose the new boss. In this way, the party would better ensure its next leader is someone who — unlike Redford — has the support of Tory loyalists. However, narrowing the voters’ list could also further alienate the party from the Alberta public, and open it to criticism that the PCs are afraid of change.
Quality of candidates
Political observers will watch closely to see what kind of candidates are attracted by the opportunity to replace Redford. The PC brand has endured a lot of adversity over the past four decades, but the party is heading into uncharted waters as it seeks its fourth leader in eight years. The quantity and quality of candidates who enter the race will provide a good indication of whether the party is perceived as worth saving, or whether Albertans see it on an irrevocable death march. A handful of current cabinet ministers are expected to throw their hats in the ring, which will require them to step down from cabinet during the race. But many believe the contest also has to attract at least some high-profile outside candidates — people with high name recognition and an ability to raise money quickly. Should the ballot be confined to a small group of Tory insiders, it will open the door to opposition attacks that the party has failed to move on from the Redford era.
Opposition tactics
The success of the PC leadership process, and its next leader, may depend to some degree on the approach of opposition parties and other adversaries of the current government such as labour groups. To date, the opposition strategy has been to attack the entire group of PC MLAs, spreading the message that the problems lie not just with Redford but with the Tory party itself. Yet it is unclear if that will be the style through the spring and summer. Should opposition parties try to dig up dirt and discredit potential candidates now, or should they wait to spring such attacks once the leader has been chosen?
As for discontented groups like labour unions, they also have a dilemma. Should they continue to hammer the PCs, or will they see the leadership contest as an opportunity to push for more favourable policies? Completely abandoning the Tories could be an unwise move, as it may help to assure a Wildrose government that could be just as unfriendly to unions.
Early election
When the Progressive Conservatives party elects a new leader four to six months from now, it will be just in time for the fall legislative session. The new premier will likely lead the government through that session, but whether he or she will call an early election is up in the air. Alberta’s fixed election law states a race must happen between March and May 2016, but there’s nothing stopping the PCs from calling an early race.
MacEwan University political analyst Chaldeans Mensah says it would be “foolhardy for a new leader to even entertain the thought of a new election.” Instead, Mensah says, the new leader should use the remaining mandate to prove him or herself to voters ahead of the 2016 race.
The Wildrose seems to think an early election is possible, however. After Redford’s resignation, Danielle Smith noted her party would be stepping up efforts to get a full roster of election candidates in place. Other parties are using the turmoil within the PC party as a jumping-off point to appeal to supporters for donations.