Provincial opposition parties preparing for snap election

Alberta’s opposition parties are bracing for a snap provincial election as early as the spring of 2015, shortly after the governing Progressive Conservatives elect a new leader, and long before the legislated deadline in the spring of 2016.

All of the parties have election preparation plans in place, and all expect to be election-ready by the fall or the early spring. Elections Alberta will be ready, too.

Former Strathcona County mayor Linda Osinchuk was among the first Wildrose candidates nominated to run in the next election. The party now has 19 of 87 positions on the slate filled, and plans to have 50 candidates nominated by the end of October.

Osinchuk won the seat June 13, eight months after she lost the mayoralty to Roxanne Carr in an extraordinarily close race.

“This is a journey that I wasn’t expecting to be taking,” Osinchuk said. “We worked hard to be there for the next term, and when that didn’t happen … I really focused on: ‘Where do I go from here? What does the community need?’ ”

When the Wildrose approached her to run, she considered the PCs’ broken promise to build a hospital in Sherwood Park, and the need for a new courthouse.

“This is not what people were promised, and it’s not what they expected,” Osinchuk said. “I thought: I need to get in, to make the difference.”

Talk of a snap election started almost immediately after former premier Alison Redford stepped down in March. There are now three candidates to replace her: Jim Prentice, Thomas Lukaszuk and Ric McIver.

Prentice is widely expected to win, but he is not currently a sitting MLA, so Tories will have to decide whether they will hold a byelection or call a general election to win a fresh mandate from Albertans.

“They have to weigh the risks of a byelection as opposed to the risk of the general (election),” said a Wildrose strategist who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Byelections have low voter turnout and it’s an opportunity for people to express anger. The PCs lost Ralph Klein’s seat in a byelection after he stepped down — it’s really, really risky.”

The new Tory leader and premier might also argue he needs a mandate.

“Traditionally there has also been a honeymoon period, so there’s an impetus to take advantage of it,” the strategist said. “Really negative polls and really positive polls both push toward a general election.”

NDP secretary Brian Stokes said the party has five candidates nominated, nine in the process and more to come in the fall. The party’s debt will be paid off by the end of the summer and financing is in place for the next election.

“The election planning committee has set a readiness date for this coming spring, just in case the PCs get a little bump and decide to get while the getting is good,” Stokes said.

Liberal Leader Raj Sherman said his party has held 15 annual general meetings at the constituency level over the past two months, along with a party general meeting and a leader’s dinner.

“The Liberal party is out of debt, we actually have money in the bank,” Sherman said.

“You can’t trust the PCs, they’ll do whatever they need to do to retain power, so we’d better be ready by the fall.”

PC Party spokesman Bryce Forbes said the governing party hasn’t yet opened for nominations, and declined to comment on the prospects of a snap election. The first vote in the Tory leadership race is scheduled for Sept. 6.