Edmonton Journal

Why Oilers should keep Gagner, trade Perron

Buying low and selling high is big off-season challenge for GM

- Cult of Hockey David Staples Journal columnis t David Stapl es is a reg ular contributo­r to th e Cult of Hoc ke y analytics blog

It’s time for that annual reality show, NHL Makeover, in which each general manager has the ability to change the look of his team.

The decisions made at this time, such as the Oilers pinning their hopes on free agents such as Eric Belanger, Cam Barker, Kurtis Foster and Ben Eager in recent seasons, can help break a team.

But Oilers GM Craig MacTavish can help make his squad a playoff performer if he has a few more sign-andtrade campaigns as the one he had last summer, when he picked up David Perron for Magnus Paajarvi.

Who should the Edmonton Oilers keep? Who should they trade? Who should be offered a new contract? Who shouldn’t be?

Here’s my take on what status each Oilers player should have right now, with each player slotted into one of four categories: sell, hold, sign or release.

Taylor Hall, 22, Jordan Eberle, 24, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 21: Hold

These three are all on longterm contracts that pay $6 million a year, but the Oilers should get good value out of them. With sounder coaching, the two-way play of each should improve.

David Perron, 26, Sell

Sportsnet’s Mark Spector has predicted either Eberle or Perron won’t be with the Oilers next season — a provocativ­e statement but a logical one.

Of course, most Oilers fans will rage against any suggestion of moving Perron. But no one is saying you trade this player for magic beans.

Perron greatly outperform­ed his $3.8-million contract value, he’s got two years left on that deal and he’s coming off a great scoring campaign, but his defensive play on the wing is only so-so. If the Oilers can get a top-pairing defenceman or a good second-line centre for him, Perron is the price the Edmonton will likely have to pay.

Sam Gagner, 24: Hold

Gagner has two years left on a deal that pays him $4.8 million. He’s coming off his worst NHL season, partly due to injury woes. It makes little sense to trade him when his value is so low. At the same time, it seems like the Oilers have finally realized that Gagner’s best position is wing,

where he won’t be nearly so taxed on defence.

Boyd Gordon, 29, Matt Hendricks, 33, Andrew Ference, 34. Hold

These are all solid NHL citizens and decent players, if they’re not asked to do too much. Gordon and Hendricks will work best as fourth-line checkers, Ference as a thirdpairi­ng depth defender.

Nail Yakupov, 20, Hold

Why give up on a player who could still become a star goal scorer? His two-way play was at the same OK level as his rookie year, but he had terrible puck luck, so you’d be selling low. Bad idea.

Justin Schultz, 23, and Jef Petry, 25, sign

Some fans are down on these players, mainly because they’re convinced one or the other or both are shaky on defence. Indeed, both players do need to improve their defensive fundamenta­ls, but Craig Ramsay is just the assistant coach to help them. Both players are trending up and on the verge of becoming reliable second pairing d-men.

Mark Arcobello and Anton Lander, hold

They have limited trade value but both played strong two-way hockey in the American Hockey League and should be ready for roles in Edmonton.

Taylor Fedun, 26, Luke Gazdic, 24, sign

These are two veteran minor leaguers who can help the Oilers next year — Gazdic as the 14th forward/enforcer, Fedun, a sharp puck mover and sound positional defender, as the sixth or seventh defenceman.

Martin Marincin, 22, Oscar Klefbom, 20, Sell Third-overall pick, hold

The only way the Oilers lose at the 2014 draft is if they move down and fail to bring in either Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart or Leon Draisaitl, any of whom have a good shot at eventually filling a major, gaping hole on the Oilers’ roster.

Ben Scrivens, Viktor Fasth, hold

Two solid and relatively inexpensiv­e goalies battling for the top job here. Nothing wrong with that picture.

These two players have “potential” written all over them, which means you’re selling high on both of them. If a top-pairing d-man or strong two-way centre is available, you’re not going to get that player cheaply. Of course, if the Oilers could trade lesser prospects and get a needed piece, that would certainly be sweet. But I’m attempting to be a realist here.

 ?? Edmonton Journal/file ?? Andrew Ference, left, and David Perron, right, celebrate a goal by Oilers teammate Sam Gagner in late March.
Edmonton Journal/file Andrew Ference, left, and David Perron, right, celebrate a goal by Oilers teammate Sam Gagner in late March.
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