City forecast to hit 2.1 million by 2041

Urban outskirts growing swiftly, population expert says

Edmonton’s population is set to increase by one million people in the next three decades, the province believes, but the real growth may be hiding outside the city limits.

The Alberta government’s population projection report suggests the provincial head count could top 6.2 million by 2041, with Edmonton and Calgary accounting for the bulk of the extra numbers.

Edmonton, under census division boundaries, is expected to be home to 2.1 million people by then. The report estimates Calgary will reach 2.4 million people, adding another one million from its current size, as the population becomes further concentrated in urban centres.

However, Dave Odynak, demographic research analyst at the University of Alberta’s Population Research Laboratory, believes Alberta’s two metropolises may be claiming more than their fair share.

Census divisions reach far beyond municipal boundaries, he said, incorporating many nearby towns.

“The reporting (tends) to mask the amazing growth of places such as Airdrie, Okotoks, High River, St. Albert, Sherwood Park and Leduc.”

Towns close to the two cities had historically been small, stand-alone entities, he said, but many are now growing satellite communities servicing their larger neighbour.

“A place like High River that historically only had like 2,000 people. All of a sudden being a bedroom community of Calgary, they’re over 20,000.

“If I were living in a place like Okotoks ... I look at this and think: ‘What’s my population going to be?’ ”

The projections could also be hiding Alberta’s oilpatch workers, Odynak said. The census division of Wood Buffalo, which includes Fort McMurray, had a 2013 estimated population of 79,000 and was forecast to grow to 118,000 by 2041.

However, the region’s transient workforce puts its true population much higher than that, Odynak said.

“The numbers they use in Treasury focus on permanent populations, not on those temporary shadow populations. You’ve got probably over 50,000 in work camps. They’re not in those numbers.”

The projection report found migration was likely to account for two thirds of Alberta’s population growth by 2041 — about 1.38 million people.