Tories surge past Wildrose in new poll
Smith’s approval ratings have plummeted over last six months
CALGARY — The Tories under Premier Jim Prentice have surged ahead to take a narrow lead in Alberta after a dramatic nosedive in support for Danielle Smith’s Wildrose party, according to a new poll.
The survey by Insights West shows that 35 per cent of decided voters say they would cast their ballot for the Tory candidate in their riding in the next election, while 29 per cent would back Wildrose.
The NDP comes in third at 16 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 15 per cent, while other parties or independents have five per cent support.
In an Insights West poll conducted in April — a month after Alison Redford’s sudden resignation as premier — Wildrose had the support of 50 per cent of voters, while the PCs had 21-per-cent support. At that time, the NDP were at 16 per cent and the Liberals at 11 per cent.
“It definitely hasn’t been a good second half of the year for (the Wildrose),” Insights West vice-president Mario Canseco said Tuesday.
Canseco noted the Wildrose advantage was likely inflated in April given the fallout from Redford and uncertainty over who would be the PC party’s next leader. But he said the trend should be a cause of concern for Smith, who saw her personal approval ratings drop from 60 per cent in April to 38 per cent now, while her disapproval rating sits at 40 per cent.
Of those polled, one-third said their impression of Smith had worsened over the last six months, while only four per cent said it had improved.
Prentice became premier in September after winning the PC leadership race. In October, the former federal cabinet minister led the Tories to a sweep of four byelections.
That appeared to stagger the Wildrose, with Smith calling for a review of her leadership — only to shelve the plan after her caucus offered her their support.
The Wildrose has seen three MLAs leave caucus this month, with two crossing the floor to the government.
“There was a moment when they were seen as the government-in-waiting,” said Canseco. “Prentice is finding a way to reconnect with the base.”
The survey shows 16 per cent of Wildrose voters in 2012 would now vote for the PCs, suggesting some former Tories “are returning to the fold.” Prentice’s approval rating is 46 per cent, while his disapproval rate is 26 per cent.
Canseco said there are bright spots for Wildrose, including the small gap between the top two parties, the volatility demonstrated in the polling and the large number of undecided voters — 37 per cent.
The poll of 612 Albertans was conducted online between Nov. 28 and Dec. 1. A random probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.