Support for Tories on the rise, poll finds

CALGARY — The Alberta Tories have extended their lead over a decimated opposition, just as Albertans signalled they largely oppose Danielle Smith’s decision to lead eight fellow Wildrose MLAs to Jim Prentice’s Progressive Conservative government, a new poll suggests.

The survey by Mainstreet Technologies found that 44 per cent of decided voters support the PCs, while 20 per cent would cast a ballot for the leaderless Wildrose that lost most of its MLAs last week.

New Democrats placed third with 18 per cent of support, followed by the Liberals with 14 per cent and the Alberta Party at four per cent.

The phone poll of 3,128 Albertans, conducted Sunday, suggests the PCs under Prentice have improved their popular standing from earlier this month, when another firm’s survey showed a narrow lead over the party Smith led until last week. The Wildrose had held a consistent lead in polls while Alison Redford was premier.

“Despite what the general public feels about the floor crossing, I think the fact that Prentice is doing such a good job is part of the reason why they crossed the floor to begin with, is part of the reason why support is up,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet.

Days after Smith and most other Wildrose MLAs crossed the floor to join Prentice’s government, 59 per cent of those polled said they disapprove of the move, which deflated the opposition party and reshaped the province’s political landscape.

Thirty-one per cent said they support the floor-crossing, and the rest indicated they weren’t sure.

The disapproval largely comes from supporters of opposition parties. Seventy per cent of PC backers said they were either strongly or somewhat in favour, while 27 per cent disapproved of the surprise move.

Among Albertans who said they’d vote Wildrose, 91 per cent were against the mass defection.

Opposition party supporters are likely worried a stronger PC government will pose an even graver threat to their political foes, Maggi suggested.

“Even if there is backlash against the floor-crossing itself, it’s going to tend to be among the population that are Liberal, NDP, Alberta Party supporters, and the hard, hardcore Wildrose supporters.”

The next provincial election is scheduled to be held in early 2016, though many observers have speculated Prentice may call a spring vote to seek approval for the expanded Tory tent and to get a mandate for dealing with a weakened Alberta economy.

When undecided voters are considered in the latest poll, 35 per cent of all respondents said they back the PCs, compared to 16 per cent for the Wildrose, 14 per cent for the NDP and 12 per cent for the Liberals.

Twenty per cent said they were undecided.

Smith has said she abandoned the party she led for five years after becoming convinced Alberta conservatives must unite to deal with economic uncertainty sparked by tumbling oil prices.

The former Official Opposition leader said she had become impressed with Prentice’s leadership at a time when she was facing backlash from Wildrose supporters for attempting to steer the party away from socially conservative policies.

The new survey shows that 58 per cent of those polled either somewhat or strongly disapprove of Smith’s proposal to merge the Wildrose and PC parties, compared to 33 per cent who support it. The remainder were unsure.

The Wildrose efforts to rebuild come as 63 per cent of Albertans polled said they approve of the way Prentice is handling his job as premier, compared to 26 per cent who disapprove.

Mainstreet Technologies’ phone survey of 3,128 Albertans used an automated dialing technique called interactive voice response, or IVR, an alternative to live operator polling or online panels. Using this method, the Ontario-based polling firm was the most accurate predictor of last fall’s Toronto mayoral election.

About one-third of the poll’s respondents hailed from Calgary, one-third from Edmonton and one-third from the rest of the province.

A survey of this sample size can be considered accurate with 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.