Climate change threatens coffee

Scientists predict severe loss of supply if growers fail to adapt

LONDON — Global coffee supply losses may be severe and a quarter of Brazil’s production is under threat unless farmers limit the effects of climate change, according to a study from an international group of scientists.

Rainfall pattern changes and a temperature increase of two degrees Celsius by 2050 will hurt arabica coffee grown especially in Latin America and Asia, according to a report from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture. Crops will need to be planted at higher elevations and protected by shade trees to keep them cool, said the global research organization that’s based in Cali, Colombia.

Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee grower, may lose 25 per cent of its crop and output in Nicaragua, El Salvador and Mexico may drop unless farmers adapt, it said. Indonesia’s growing area may shrink by as much as 37 per cent because nature reserves and indigenous communities already occupy higher-elevated land. The report was funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, an international research partnership.

“Coffee farmers must compensate for higher temperatures to survive,” Peter Laderach, co-author of the report and a senior climate change specialist for CGIAR, said in an online statement. “Brazil’s highly mechanized, commercial coffee production is not suitable for intercropping with trees, which could provide shade and bring temperatures down.”

Coffee-producing areas may need to shift from Central America to eastern parts of Africa and the Asia-Pacific region, according to the report. Crops will generally need to move 300 to 500 meters further above sea level to survive, which is feasible for producers in Ethiopia and Kenya.

MAURICIO LIMA/AFP/ GETTY IMAGES A worker collects arabica coffee beans at a farm in Minas Gerais state in Brazil, where a quarter of production could be under threat if farmers don’t adapt to climate change.