Derby ‘superhorse’ vulnerable to upset
American Pharoah facing strong field
Racing fans annually lament the low quality of the horses in the Kentucky Derby, and often their assessment proves to be correct. But few such opinions are being voiced before Saturday’s running of America’s greatest horse race.
This is the strongest, deepest, fastest Derby field since at least 2007 — the year of Street Sense and Curlin — and it could conceivably be the best since the great years of the 1980s.
The favourite, American Pharoah, is the defending two-year-old champion and the winner of four straight races by a combined total of 22 lengths.
Two of his rivals are undefeated: Dortmund (6-for-6) and Materiality (3-for-3.)
Carpe Diem has won 4 of 5 and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
The speed figures earned by most of the top contenders confirm the quality of the field; eight starters have recorded triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures.
Nevertheless, handicappers should examine the horses in the 141st Derby just as they do in an ordinary race: with a healthy measure of skepticism.
Bettors should always look for vulnerability in favourites, as well as hidden merit in long shots. And the skepticism should begin with American Pharoah.
Yes, he’s crushed his competition. He won his last start, the Arkansas Derby, by eight lengths. Steve Haskin wrote in the Blood-Horse that he could have won by 15 if Victor Espinoza had let him run.
Fans and horsemen have started using the “superhorse” word. A clocker at Churchill Downs, after observing the colt’s last workout, said this might be the best racehorse he’s seen in 35 years.
Whoa! In his three victories on dirt, American Pharoah has had a perfect setup each time.
Twice he took the lead against fields devoid of significant speed and set an easy pace. In the Arkansas Derby, he sat second behind a 38-to-1 speedster and shot past him when the front-runner tired. This was the only time in his career American Pharoah has passed another horse.
He can certainly win the Derby, but he doesn’t deserve to be a short-priced favourite in a field of 20 where he’ll have to cope with other highquality speed horses for the first time.
While I have doubts about American Pharoah, I strongly dislike the chances of three other well-regarded Derby contenders. All three of Carpe Diem’s stakes victories have come at the expense of weak fields. Materiality, a stablemate of Carpe Diem, delivered a stunning performance to win the Florida Derby. But the history of the Kentucky Derby suggests he doesn’t have enough seasoning to win such a demanding race. Mubtaahij excited many bettors who watched his eight-length runaway in the $2 million United Arab Emirates Derby. But his winning time was slow, and horses from Dubai have had no success on the first Saturday in May.
In addition to American Pharoah, two colts in the field have come into the Derby well prepared. Dortmund and Upstart both offer significantly better value than the favourite. American Pharaoh’s stablemate, Dortmund, has proven himself under fire while the favourite has not. In two of his races, Dortmund was engaged in tough, head-to-head stretch duels with a formidable foe, and prevailed both times. Upstart has won just three of his seven starts, but has run well in every one of them. Once he was disqualified from a victory. Twice in Grade I stakes he’s finished a close second behind a winner who delivered a monster performance.