Forget polls, unless they’re right

Two big elections last week with two very different results.

Two days after a resounding majority of Albertans chose the New Democrats under Rachel Notley last Tuesday, Great Britons (well, other than those feisty Scots) threw their support to David Cameron and his Conservative Party. Both results were a big surprise to most. Few believed the polls foretelling a majority win for Notley. After all, pollsters predicted a Wildrose majority in 2012, and then Alison Redford’s PCs steamrollered the opposition. So even as the results proved the pollsters right on election eve, there was a sense of “did this really happen?”

In the U.K., polls uniformly predicted a dead heat between Conservatives and Labour (prompting one cheeky newspaper’s headline, “Well hung!” two days prior to the vote).

Everyone was hand-wringing about the prospects of a hamstrung Parliament, unable to function.

And then, incredibly, as the hand-counted results painfully crawled in (hullo, Britain, welcome to the 21st century), the truth set a whole bunch of political leaders free. Labour leader Ed Miliband resigned. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg resigned. UKIP leader Nigel Farage resigned.

And a surprised David Cameron remained standing as the leader of a majority government. That’s democracy for you. In Alberta, the pollsters have been quietly content. In the U.K., the British Polling Council launched an independent inquiry into poll methodology.

And comedic icon John Cleese took to Twitter to say this: “I see that various party leaders have resigned. When are the CEOs of the polling companies going to do so — all 11 of them?”

It’s a tough job, clearly, and a good lesson for all of us. What we say and what we do isn’t necessarily the same.

And — always — make sure politics, not polls, informs your decision.