Al-Qaida offshoots expand quietly in Yemen and Syria
Global focus on ISIL distracting from gains by other radical group
BEIRUT — Al-Qaida affiliates are significantly expanding their footholds in Syria and Yemen, using the chaos of civil wars to acquire territory and increase their influence, according to analysts, residents and intelligence officials.
The gains have helped the terror group’s affiliates become major players in the countries and have complicated efforts to resolve the conflicts. Al-Qaida offshoots could also be gaining sanctuaries to eventually plan attacks against the United States and Europe, analysts say.
In Syria, al-Qaida’s wing, Jabhat al-Nusra, plays a leading role in a new rebel coalition that has captured key areas in the northwestern part of the country. In Yemen, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has seized parts of the country’s largest province, territory that includes military bases, an airfield and ports.
“Al-Qaida is becoming more deeply entrenched in Syria, and it is gaining significant momentum in Yemen, and the global focus on ISIL has distracted from the expansion of this other radical, transnational group,” said Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics.
Although there is little evidence that the two al-Qaida affiliates are collaborating, both are adopting similar strategies of expanding where they can in the shadows of more powerful insurgent groups, analysts say.
At the same time, the two branches of al-Qaida are trying to position themselves as more palatable brands of radical Islam among citizens in Yemen and Syria who feel threatened by the Houthi rebels and ISIL.
The militants in Syria and Yemen are avoiding the sort of brutality that has distinguished ISIL, which split from al-Qaida last year. The shift appears to be an attempt to win local support and avoid the kind of international military action that the ISIL is facing, analysts say.
Al-Qaida’s leaders “are attempting to operate under the radar as part of an adaptive strategy that they see as a way to compete with and outlast ISIL,” Gerges said.
A U.S.-led coalition targeted ISIL after it captured a vast swath of territory in Iraq and Syria, declared a caliphate and provoked global outrage with beheadings and other vicious acts. The proclamation of a caliphate was a direct challenge to al-Qaida, which has aspired to lead Muslims around the world.
In Yemen, AQAP has quietly exploited a war between pro-government forces and Shiite rebels to seize chunks of the southern Hadramaut province, including its capital, Mukalla. AQAP fighters also are battling the rebels, known as Houthis, further east in Bayda province, although they have not taken control of much territory there.
AQAP is perhaps al-Qaida’s most powerful affiliate, tied to several bomb plots aimed at the United States, including an unsuccessful effort to blow up a Detroit-bound plane in 2009.
In recent years, the Yemeni military had launched offensives against AQAP, often with the help of the United States. But the Yemeni army has split, with some units siding with the Houthis. The remaining pro-government forces are focused on fighting the Houthis, not AQAP.
The complex war in Yemen now also involves the Saudis, who have been bombing Yemen to try to drive back the Shiite Houthis, whom they see as proxies of their rival, Shiite Iran. But the Saudis are not targeting AQAP, which comprises Sunnis.
“Why would Saudi attack them if they’re effectively on the same side in this war?” said a Yemeni intelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing security concerns.
AQAP took over Mukalla and surrounding areas without a fight. In the chaos after the fall of the Yemeni government in February and the start of the Saudi air war two months ago, military units in the area abandoned their positions, residents said. Yemen’s president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, fled to Saudi Arabia but is still recognized internationally as Yemen’s leader.
Residents of Mukalla say that AQAP’s militants have seized banks and gained control over the city’s town council, judiciary and nearby military installations, which hold battle tanks and heavy artillery.
The residents of Mukalla said AQAP has refrained from imposing strict interpretations of Islamic law, such as banning Arabic music and Western fashions, as the group did when it briefly established an “emirate” in the Yemeni province of Abyan in 2011. The following year, the Yemeni army expelled the AQAP militants with the help of U.S. military advisers and drone strikes.
Now, AQAP’s mostly Yemeni militants are trying to build relationships in Hadramaut by promoting the group’s fighters as a bulwark against Houthi rebels, said Saleh al-Dwaila, a tribal leader in Mukalla who opposes AQAP.
Nusra started to acquire significant territory in northern Syria last year, defeating moderate rebel groups that had lost popularity because of reputations for corruption and ineffectiveness. Nusra, which fields predominantly Syrian fighters, is seen by many in the country as more honest and potent against Syrian president Bashar Assad’s forces.
Those attributes have helped Nusra weather the challenge posed by ISIL, which fields many foreign fighters who are often unfamiliar with local customs.
The Obama administration has watched with alarm the expanding influence of Nusra, according to a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity.