Oilers goalies Scrivens and Nilsson duel for backup role
The Oilers — like every other National Hockey League team — will need consistent goaltending if they hope to compete for a playoff spot in April. However, a short pre-season means head coach Todd McLellan and his staff, especially goaltending coach Dustin Schwartz, will select a backup goalie based on a very limited sample size.
Cam Talbot looks like he will be the Oilers’ No. 1 goalie when the season begins Oct. 8 in St. Louis. He played the first home pre-season game and was the first goalie to play an entire pre-season game. He was acquired from the New York Rangers to be the starter, but his play will determine whether he remains the everyday goalie. He watched Tuesday night as Ben Scrivens and Anders Nilsson split the game against the Arizona Coyotes.
Scrivens and Nilsson are in a close race to be the backup.
Scrivens struggled mightily last season. He had a poor .890 save percentage and 3.16 goals-against average in 57 games. He couldn’t handle being the everyday starter, but over his previous four seasons as a backup, he played 72 games and had a solid .916 save percentage and 2.46 GAA.
Nilsson played 21 games for the New York Islanders in 2013-14, but struggled with a .896 save percentage and 3.11 GAA. However, he was outstanding in the Kontinental Hockey League last year, posting a sparkling .936 and 1.71 GAA. The KHL is more defensive than the NHL, but those are still excellent numbers.
If the decision was based solely on last season, Nilsson would be the front-runner. But the Oilers have experienced first-hand how a goalie can bounce back after a subpar season.
Devan Dubnyk had a .914 save percentage in 2011, .916 in 2012 and a very good .920 in 2013. But the wheels fell off in 2014 when he lost his confidence and he posted an ugly .894 save percentage before being traded to Nashville. He rebounded big time last year between Arizona and Minnesota. He had the secondbest save percentage among starters, behind Carey Price, and was a Vezina Trophy finalist.
I don’t see Scrivens having that type of bounce-back season, but goalies can be very finicky. Most of them don’t fully develop until their mid- to late-twenties, and outside of the elite, many will see their numbers fluctuate significantly from one year to the next.
The challenge for McLellan and Schwartz is deciding if two half games, and one full 60 minutes pre-season start against a watered down Minnesota Wild team, is an accurate portrayal of how Nilsson will fare in the NHL. Nilsson posted a shutout over the Wild in Saskatoon Saturday, but the Wild didn’t have any of their top snipers playing.
Nilsson hasn’t allowed a goal in his three appearances, stopping all 53 shots. Can the Oilers send him to the minors when he hasn’t allowed a goal?
Scrivens, meanwhile, has more experience and has also played well. He has been in a competition like this before and explained his approach.
“I think it is the wrong attitude to try to make an impression,” Scrivens said. “A power forward can try for a big hit to get noticed, but if you are a goalie searching for a big save, it never ends well. It is almost the exact opposite approach; you just try and be steady and give the team a chance. You hope your body of work over your career, especially over camp and practice, is good enough. I don’t know what is going to happen. We have three goalies who are playing well, so I guess it is a dream/nightmare scenario for management.”
Scrivens and Nilsson both have one-way contracts, and both need to clear waivers. Scrivens is due $2.3 million and Nilsson will make $1 million, regardless if they play in the NHL or the American Hockey League. The Oilers salary cap is essentially the same regardless of who they send to the minors. If Scrivens is sent to the minors he’d be a $1.35-million cap hit ($950,000 is cap exempt), and combined with Nilsson’s $1 million, the backup cap hit is $2.3 million.
Money won’t impact the salary cap, but it might affect an opposing team’s decision to claim Scrivens or Nilsson on waivers. I believe teams would shy away from Scrivens due to his salary. Parting Shot: The Calgary Flames and the Wild also have three NHL calibre goalies. Jonas Hiller, Karri Ramo and Joni Ortio are in Calgary while Dubnyk, Niklas Backstrom and Darcy Keumper are in Minnesota. The Wild don’t want to lose Keumper, but Backstrom has a nomovement clause and can’t be sent to the minors. Ortio only makes $600,000 and is just 24 years old.