Strategy shifts signal endgame
THE STRATEGISTS, AT THIS POINT, FIVE DAYS LEFT IN THE ELECTION, ARE GOING TO PULL OUT ALL THE STOPS. — DONALD ABELSON, WESTERN UNIVERSITY
In chess, the endgame begins when both players have already taken their biggest risks, endured their worst losses, and seen their best strategies brought to life, for better or worse.
In politics, likewise, this final stage is almost a different game entirely, as campaigns take stock of their positions and adjust accordingly.
With the vote a scant few days away, evidence of these strategic shifts has dominated news from the campaign trail.
It was most evident Wednesday when Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, risking a jinx, said the word “majority” out loud, saying it is the goal of his campaign. It could be seen in the Conservative Party’s large ad buy in Chinese and South Asian newspapers, pushing the message that a vote for Trudeau is a vote for marijuana, heroin injection sites, and what a CBC report awkwardly described as “neighbourhood brothels.”
And it could be heard in the voice of Tom Mulcair, insisting that polls are wrong and this is still a three party race, as he tried to open clear blue water between his NDP and the Liberals, for example on marijuana decriminalization.
“In the dying days of this election, when the three parties for the most part are neck and neck, the strategy of both the Liberals and the NDP, not surprisingly, has been do whatever you have to do to stop Harper,” said Donald Abelson, chair of political science at Western University.
“[Mulcair] has changed in large part I suspect because internal polls have told him the Liberals are creeping ahead and his main target should no longer be Harper, but he has to focus on distancing himself from Justin Trudeau.”
These strategic changes are by nature not planned with much forethought. This is not the October surprise, that deliberate last minute bombshell smear made famous in US presidential races. But these late-stage adjustments are calculated by people who understand they are running on shifting sands, and that a last minute tweak can affect an election as much as an early grand policy pronouncement.
“In some elections, it’s one slogan, it’s one particular message, it’s one screw up, that convinces people that they either need change or they should continue to go with the government in power. And that decision is not being made until the very end when the timing is right,” Abelson said.
Trudeau, for example, made his majority comment in Ontario, in French, as part of a rhetorical question, which he declined to repeat in English, when asked.
So it was hardly a clarion call, for fear of sounding over-confident, which would risk the same fate that befell Harper in 2004, when he mused about winning and spooked the electorate. But was clearly the action of a leader who is confident in his momentum.
“I think what Trudeau was saying was aimed at Quebec,” said John Wright, senior vice-president at Ipsos.
He referred to a poll, released Wednesday and tracking back to April, that shows Trudeau has been replacing Harper as candidate who scores best on questions such as leadership, trust, vision, global representation, even managerial competence.
The effect, he suggested, is that Liberals will play the last few days safely, while the Conservatives will go increasingly negative, especially in the suburbs around Toronto, home to many economic immigrants whose votes have been key to previous Tory wins.
“People haven’t been scared enough of Trudeau," Wright said.
For his part, Mulcair will rally on Friday with Rachel Notley, who brought the NDP to power in Alberta, pushing his message that the NDP is better positioned than the Liberals to defeat Harper, but mainly, as Wright put it, trying to hold on to what he’s got.
“The strategists, at this point, five days left in the election, are going to pull out all the stops,” Abelson said.