Board predicts huge influx

Edmonton likely needs 30 new public schools built in the next 15 years to keep up with the continuing deluge of school-age children, Edmonton Public Schools board chairman said.

A demographic projection report prepared for the school board found Edmonton’s efforts to promote infill are no match for the market forces driving families with young children to the suburbs.

The Applications Management Consulting study concluded the city is on track to gain around 30,000 5-to-17-year olds during the next 15 years, and that close to 90 per cent of them will live in “developing ” neighbourhoods up against, or beyond, Anthony Henday Drive. It would be a 24-per-cent increase in the number of school-aged kids in Edmonton. The conclusion was a disappointment to board chairman Michael Janz, who had hoped Edmonton’s future included more strollers trundling along the sidewalks of revitalized, family-friendly core neighbourhoods.

“If you’re a young, middle class family, you are effectively priced out of many communities in the city and there is just not the supply,” Janz said.

The report takes into account the City of Edmonton’s infill strategy, school district administrators said.

“The reality is, the city isn’t meeting their targets,” said Lorne Parker, the district’s executive director, infrastructure.

The city is also up against residents resistant to any change in mature areas, Janz said. They may want the status quo, but without infill, their schools are emptying, he said.

The report’s result emphasizes why the city needs a strategy for affordable and family-friendly housing, trustee Bridget Stirling said.

“We’re often told that we need to keep schools open to bring families to communities. I think this is indicative of the need to ensure the right kind of affordable housing to bring families to schools,” she said.

By 2029, there will be an estimated 10-per-cent increase in the number of schoolchildren living in the “mature” neighbourhoods, such as Crestwood, Pleasantview, Beverly, or Ottewell, the report found.

However, the “established” neighbourhoods, like Mill Woods, Riverbend, and West Edmonton, are due for a more than eight-percent decline in kids by 2029, the report said.

The city’s core can expect a slight increase in youth.

About two-thirds of Edmonton’s children go to public school, likely putting much of the burden of growth on Edmonton public.

District superintendent Darrel Robertson called the predictions “a little bit frightening. We have a lot of work to do.”

That work is already underway and involves public consultations on consolidating schools in areas like Westlawn, Britannia, and Rosslyn.

“No amount of densification is going to bring that population back to that peak time,” trustee Orville Chubb said.

It also means three new schools slated to open in 2016 and nine more in September 2017 aren’t nearly enough to keep up with Edmonton’s ballooning girth.

The board must keep demanding the provincial government fork over the cash for new schools, Janz said.

“We added a community the size of Grande Prairie to the south side of our city and didn’t give them schools for a decade. So, now, we are in this position,” Janz said.

As the district also grapples with dozens of aging schools in poor shape, and where enrolment has already declined, Janz said it’s important to build replacement schools in those mature areas at the same pace suburban schools are installed.

Earlier this year, the board approved a construction wish list with a consolidated K-9 school in Highlands at the top.

No new school construction projects were included in this year’s provincial budget. The government did promise $500 million for school construction across Alberta between 2017 and 2020.

When asked if he thinks building more suburban schools is enabling urban sprawl, Janz said no. Entire neighbourhoods are filling up with no immediate hope of a neighbourhood elementary school coming, and, potentially, a long school bus ride, he said.

“I see here that people are continuing to vote with their wallets, and are continuing to make other housing choices.”