‘NOT SURE’ TOP CONTENDER TO HEAD UP A UNITED RIGHT
If all goes according to plan (as pundits see it) on Saturday afternoon, Jason Kenney will win the leadership of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative party. Then what?
Well, I would suggest Kenney change his name — to “Not Sure.”
I base that advice on a Mainstreet/Postmedia public opinion poll released this week.
It asked this question: “If the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta and the Wildrose Party were to merge, who would you prefer as leader?”
In fourth place (also last place) was Kenney at 17 per cent of respondents.
Wildrose Leader Brian Jean was third with 26 per cent.
In second was “Someone Else” with 28 per cent.
And first place went to “Not Sure” with 29 per cent support.
The telephone poll of almost 2,400 people conducted March 10 has a margin of error of 2.01 percentage points 19 times our of 20. So, in theory Brian Jean and “Someone Else” might be tied.
But “Not Sure” is clearly in front. By changing his name to “Not Sure,” Kenney would immediately jump to first place in the upcoming fight with Jean to unite the right.
He’d also do well in all kinds of other polls dealing with, for example, how to balance the provincial budget without massive cuts, how to reduce taxes without creating a deficit, or how to lower greenhouse gas emissions without a carbon levy.
“Not Sure” is the perfect slippery answer to so many tricky questions.
I am, of course, being facetious. My point, though, is that when it comes to uniting Alberta’s conservative parties, neither Kenney nor Jean has set the world on fire. It might be because neither politician is particularly well known.
Or maybe it’s that Albertans are looking for somebody, well, better. Somebody that doesn’t make them go “meh” in a publicopinion poll.
“Jean’s done a good job as leader of the Opposition, but there’s some hope someone else will come in the race,” said Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi to explain the results. “Neither Kenney nor Jean seem to have really electrified people — maybe people are looking for someone newer or younger.”
Maggi suggested Kenney’s image might have been bruised during the leadership campaign that saw some of his supporters accused of bullying tactics.
An interesting facet of the poll is how Jean did significantly better than Kenney. We’ve seen similar numbers in other polls with Jean ahead of Kenney.
Maggis said Jean has been able to solidify his base while leading Alberta’s official Opposition. By building that base among supporters, he’s also become better known by the public.
That gives Jean a leg up on the unite the right race that will begin in earnest on Sunday, after Kenney has taken a victory lap at the PC leadership convention.
Jean has already issued an invitation to whomever wins the leadership to sit down for a chat on Monday to discuss moving to unite conservatives under one banner.
However, Jean is once again emphasizing that any unification be done under the Wildrose’s “legal framework.”
In other words, he does not agree with Kenney’s plan to wind up both parties to form a new entity.
Instead, Jean wants the unification to be done in the Wildrose tent (likely under a new name).
Jean wants to move quickly. He’ll put the plan to his members at their annual convention in June.
But this is sure to be a contentious point with Kenney, who wants members of both parties to dissolve their old factions so they can be equals building a new one.
This is where things could get really messy and nasty and, um, interesting.
But, of course, I’m basing all of this on the prediction that Kenney will win the leadership.
If either Richard Starke or Byron Nelson wins, we’ll be left wondering, what happens next?
In that case, you can call me “Not Sure.”