True No. 1 D-men are hard to find
Some of hockey’s top minds offer opinions on which blue-liners are worthy of top spot
When the Buffalo Sabres won the NHL draft lottery, general manager Jason Botterill had a smile that would light up a hockey rink because he was getting the right to draft Swedish phenom defenceman Rasmus Dahlin first overall in June.
Dahlin is what every NHL team is looking for: a true No. 1 defenceman. At least that’s what the scouts think.
It’s certainly what Edmonton Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli needs to complement Connor McDavid, but the Oilers haven’t had a true No. 1 defenceman since Chris Pronger, a future Hall of Famer, left in 2006. But Chiarelli’s not getting someone like that, so he will try to settle for a right-shot defenceman who can put up 50-60 points and play the point on the power play.
In other words, a No. 2 defenceman, which is what Justin Schultz might be today if he hadn’t been shell-shocked during his stint in Edmonton and traded to Pittsburgh, where he’s won two Stanley Cups.
You almost always have to draft your true No. 1 defenceman.
Like Los Angeles with Drew Doughty, the No. 2 overall pick in 2008, or Tampa’s Victor Hedman, who went No. 3 in 2009, or Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson, the No. 15 pick in 2008.
Teams usually don’t trade true No. 1s, with the exception of Nashville sending Shea Weber to Montreal for P.K. Subban in 2016.
So what is the definition of a true No 1?
“You have to be able to play against and negate the other team’s top players, play at least 50 per cent on the power play on one of the two units, and be a prime-time penalty killer,” said recently retired NHL coach Ken Hitchcock.
“In any situation that’s called for, you’re playing,” added Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving. “You’re matching up against top players and you’re able to drive offence, not necessarily with points, but moving pucks and playing the penalty kill. You’re able to absorb big minutes.”
“That eliminates a lot of guys. When you talk of true No. 1s, you’re talking about a small group of elite players,” said Hitchcock. “There’s lots of good true No. 2s in the league, but they are primarily shutdown guys.”
How many true No. 1s are there in the 31-team league?
“I’ve gone through that exercise a few times and it’s interesting when you go through all the teams,” said Treliving. “I don’t know how many there are. I just know they’re hard to come by.”
Denis Potvin knows a true No. 1 defenceman more than most because he won three Norris trophies and was the prototypical definition of the term.
“A true No. 1 defenceman gobbles up ice time, generates offence and is a presence defensively. Guys like (Bobby) Orr, (Doug) Harvey, (Ray) Bourque, (Nick) Lidstrom, they were like statues. What I mean is they had a presence all the time,” said Potvin, who should have put himself on that list. “I played 15 years and I don’t ever recall being on against (Dave) Semenko. I had to be on against (Wayne) Gretzky and (Mark) Messier.”
But what Potvin loves most in a true No. 1 is the ability to make a difference.
“Of all the defenceman I watch today, I like Karlsson the way he can dominate a game. He can put a team on his back, he puts up important points,” said Potvin. “Hedman and Doughty are tremendous, but I don’t know if they can change a game with a goal or an assist.”
There may only be 10 true No. 1 defencemen in the league.
There’s Doughty, Hedman, Karlsson, Oliver-Ekman Larsson in Arizona, Ryan Suter in Minnesota, Roman Josi and Subban in Nashville, Alex Pietrangelo in St. Louis and the fast-rising Seth Jones in Columbus.
There are true No. 1s to some but not others because they don’t check all the boxes (PP and PK, for instance), like Brent Burns in San Jose, Dustin Byfuglien in Winnipeg, John Klingberg in Dallas, John Carlson in Washington, Kris Letang in Pittsburgh.
Or others, like Mark Giordano, do both but don’t get universal love.
Most often, they’re drafted in the top 10, but not always.
All 31 NHL teams theoretically have one of those No. 1s. He’s your best guy. Like Rasmus Ristolainen, the Sabres’ top defenceman on a perennially bad team. Or Oscar Klefbom here in Edmonton last season with his big minutes, nice shot and strong skating, even though Klefbom is probably graded out as a No. 2.
Klingberg in Dallas puts up points and has the head for the game but he’s slight and tends to get worn down playing against top guys. Burns, who won the Norris Trophy last year, isn’t a great defender and doesn’t play against top people. That’s MarcEdouard Vlasic’s role in San Jose. Treliving sees him as a No. 1. “He’s going to play almost all the two minutes (on power play) and he’s logging big evenstrength time. He’s not given an opportunity (on penalty kill) because they have other people (Vlasic). Any way you look at it, he’s one hell-of-a player, very unique for his size and ability to shoot, the dynamic element,” said Treliving.
The jury’s out on Weber, because injuries are starting to hinder him and his mobility isn’t as strong as it used to be. Former Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith, soon to be 35, was a clear No. 1 in Chicago but there’s lots of tread on his tires. Zdeno Chara was always a No. 1 in Boston, but not at 41.
Washington’s Carlson, the top free-agent defenceman on the market in July, led all blue-liners with 68 points, 32 on the power play and played almost 25 minutes a night. But he doesn’t get matched against the other team’s big guns. Matt Niskanen takes that one as a right-shot D.
“Carlson’s coming on but he’s even on his plus-minus for this season,” said Potvin. “People say that’s not a true statistic. I say, ‘screw you.’ I mean Hedman was plus-32 in Tampa, that means something.”
Is Giordano in Calgary, who is on against McDavid, plays the power play there and kills penalties, a legit No. 1 or is it a real debate because he only had 38 points?
“For sure he is. He plays big minutes and against the other team’s top best players, and he can handle it,” said Treliving.
Byfuglien in Winnipeg is a beast with and without the puck and looks like a true No. 1 in these playoffs.
Jones has won over lots of people this season.
“You can sense it watching Seth, what he’s thinking, ‘OK, the team’s not playing well or I’m not playing well,’ and you can see him trying too change things,” said Potvin. “He’s got the mentality of a true No. 1.”
“I voted him as one of my top three D for the Norris with Doughty and Hedman. He’s a big-time player. He plays in all significant areas,” said TSN commentator and former GM Craig Button, who doesn’t see Giordano or Carlson as true No. 1s, but close.
“There’s young guys (Ivan) Provorov in Philly and (Aaron) Ekblad in Florida pushing toward true No. 1 status. They drive both special teams and play against the best players.” said Treliving.
So back to Dahlin.
“At worst Dahlin is a top pairing defenceman and likely a No. 1. He can play lots of minutes in lots of situations and make lots of plays,” said Chiarelli.
“When I look at an 18-year-old defenceman, I want to see an exceptional passer and I want to see how he is when things are going wrong for his team,” said Potvin. “Does he want to take charge? Does he get mad, get physical?”