He’s back: Why Harper’s a factor in upcoming vote
A year and a half ago, I opined in my first column for the Ottawa Citizen that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals really just wanted to rerun the 2019 election against Stephen Harper. I know that you, kind readers, will permit me one wee moment of long-awaited gloat as I note the presence of the former prime minister in not one but two election ads this week.
The first, with the man himself stumping for his successor Andrew Scheer in a campaign video released on Youtube. The other, a new Liberal TV spot in which the party and its leader asks whether Canadians want to “keep moving forward … or go back to the politics of the Harper years.”
Here’s some bad news for Prime Minister Trudeau and company: many Canadians would like that very much indeed. New polling from the Angus Reid Institute shows the Conservative Party of Canada continues to lead all others in voter intention, 36 per cent to 32 per cent for the Liberals.
But here’s some bad news for Scheer and the Conservatives: that lead is slipping away, bit by bit, as the party fails to achieve the momentum it needs to grow its base and launch it into a position to form government. In the meantime, the Liberals are not only doggedly crawling closer to a tie with the CPC, they’re putting more daylight between themselves and the NDP and Greens, who are both seeing their support soften.
More troubling for the Conservatives: at this stage in the pre-campaign period, there don’t appear to be as many voters still up for grabs who skew to the right of the political spectrum. Who are the uncommitted? New ARI polling shows more of them are women than men. More are under the age of 35, and more lean left in their politics. The issues that are most important to them include climate change and health care access — topics Scheer has had little to say about.
Which isn’t to say the Liberals don’t have serious liabilities of their own, especially the one that starts with “SNC” and ends with “Lavalin.” It’s true Mario Dion’s mid-august ruling that the PM broke ethics rules over his handling of the scandal had little impact. Most who were angry about it defected in the spring. But uncommitted voters also put transparency and honesty high up on the list of issues they care the most about. And the opposition has no doubt banked ready-to-air ads reminding people what they may have missed during summer vacation.
The Liberals and Conservatives will share some strategic plays, however. At a time when affordability is a top priority for many uncommitted voters, both will make the case that they are best equipped to reduce cost-of-living stress for those who find themselves increasingly strapped for cash and quality of life, even in a robust economic environment.
Both parties are also gambling dangerously as they trade accusations on social values. The Liberals deliberately use every opportunity to sow fear in the minds of left-leaning Canadians that Scheer will reopen the debates on abortion and same sex marriage, while hammering his failure to ever attend even a single pride parade.
To progressives, these sins are grave, but are they more unforgivable than Trudeau’s history on SNC?
Meantime, while Scheer protests Trudeau’s attacks on the social file, he must be careful not to protest too much. If he appears too centrist, too accommodating, he risks alienating the hardest core of the base, which could slip away to the People’s Party.
Ultimately, both parties will also focus on exhorting, motivating and galvanizing their bases (or in the case of the Liberals, the base they’re trying to win back) so they are enthusiastic enough to actually cast ballots. (On this, the burden rests with the Liberals, who don’t enjoy the same unshakably loyal base as the CPC.)
Thus, the return of the Phantom of the Ottawa. Conservatives still love Stephen Harper. After all, he won them three elections in a row. Leftists loathe him, and united in a singular mission to defeat Harper’s party in the 2015 campaign.
His presence has the potential to whip up both sides of the political divide. Welcome back, Harper.
Shachi Kurl is executive director of the Angus Reid Institute, a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan Public Opinion Research foundation.