Second term for Trump is not yet a certainty
In the way things go in the United States, February brings a new narrative: Donald
Trump is going to win re-election in November.
This has been the media line in Washington for the last three weeks. In the news ecosystem it is conventional wisdom, at least for now.
The argument is that the Democrats are disorganized and divided, unable to run a caucus and unlikely to settle on their nominee until the summer — after an extended fight that will weaken them in the autumn. The Republicans, for their part, are united and focused. Trump’s popularity, post-impeachment, is rising. The economy is humming.
The argument for Trump’s re-election is persuasive. He continues to have a mystical hold on his party, which is the reason Gallup reported his popularity in one poll at 49 per cent.
He has survived impeachment. The naive
Sen. Susan Collins notwithstanding, no one can say he is chastened. Rather than repent, he repeats. If that means weaponizing the Justice Department to go after his enemies (Joe Biden, James Comey) or protect his friends (Roger Stone, Mike Flynn), he will.
His theatrical State of the Union address played well, say his boosters. They loved seeing Melania drape the Presidential Medal of Freedom around Rush Limbaugh.
Most of all, the economy remains strong, and Americans are feeling good. The muchanticipated recession is nowhere in sight.
Incumbency has huge advantages, which is why presidents usually (but not always) win a second term. It means a president can spend the first half of this year being president, raising money. Trump is expected to have more than US$1 billion to spend. And the Republicans are refining their voter-turnout operation and social media, which haven’t been strengths in the past.
Then there are the Democrats. They couldn’t organize Iowa, a systemic failure worse than imagined. The same fears have been raised about the caucuses in Nevada on Saturday.
The number of candidates still in the running suggests a long race, perhaps one ending in a brokered convention. Or a race won by Bernie Sanders, who Republicans and Democrats alike consider unelectable.
So, if you love Trump, all of this gives you something to cheer. Forget that much is based on inconclusive evidence, premature judgment and wishful thinking.
Begin with Trump’s popularity. To believe analyst Nate Silver’s numbers, that Gallup poll was an outlier. Trump’s approval rating is
44 per cent, his disapproval is 52 per cent, remaining within a narrow band.
Then again, Trump was elected in 2016 with just 45.9 per cent of the popular vote, which was enough to win the Electoral College. He talks of expanding the electoral map, but it’s hard to see where.
He will be hard-pressed to hold on to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which he won by a total of some 69,000 votes. Even if the Democrats lose Michigan, for example, they are a real threat to win Arizona. They won a Senate seat there in 2018 and are likely to do the same this year.
And while the Democratic race is chaotic, it will sort itself out, perhaps as early as Super Tuesday on March 3. If the decision goes to the convention, the winner is unlikely to be Sanders, who has ceiling of 30 per cent or so.
Moderates will come up with someone, however flawed. If it is Michael Bloomberg, who is surging in national polls, he will finance his own campaign. If Sanders is the nominee, Democrats will panic, but he still beats Trump in hypothetical matchups. Many said that Trump and Ronald Reagan couldn’t win the presidency, either.
The continuous news cycle likes easy assumptions and big declarations. Anything can happen between now and November, including the coronavirus spreading, causing economic disruption.
Let’s remember that the society of hand-wringers often predict the Democrats will lose, including in 2018 when they regained the House of Representatives.
Journalists are paid to write — not to be right. Progressives should take a Valium and get back to work.