LESLYN LEWIS
Strength: A big tent of support Weakness: The Quebec factor
Lewis has pulled off a tricky feat during this leadership race: She's built a strong, dedicated base of social conservative support, but she has also appealed to a broad swath of other conservatives who like her thoughtful, measured message. Campaign staff for both O'toole and Mackay say that Lewis' momentum in this race is real.
It's hard to say whether Lewis will pick up enough first-choice support to be competitive alongside O'toole and Mackay in the first round. But if she does, she's positioned to do very well in the next round because much of Sloan's support will flow to her.
However, Lewis has a big problem: Quebec.
Although there are relatively few Conservative party members in Quebec, every riding is still weighted equally in the results, regardless of members. Quebec has 78 ridings, almost a quarter of the 338 ridings nationally. Many of the ridings can be won with just a few dozen votes. However, it takes a strong Quebec campaign to pull those votes out.
For this reason, Mackay and O'toole have invested a lot of their time in Quebec, in media interviews and on-theground organization. According to multiple sources, firearms advocates in Quebec have bought up a lot of memberships this year and may play the kind of influential role that the dairy farmers did in 2017. (In that race, Maxime Bernier's opposition to supply management prompted a large membership drive among dairy farmers to secure a narrow victory for Scheer.)
But as was made clear in the debate, Lewis cannot speak French. She is working on it, but she's a long way from fluent. Lewis may pick up some support from Quebec social conservatives, but she faces long odds in making a dent in O'toole's and Mackay's support.
Her path to victory would need to see her dominate in her strongest areas — Saskatchewan, Alberta and parts of Ontario and Atlantic Canada — and not be totally wiped out in Quebec.
Even then, Lewis would have to do better than expected in second-choice support from O'toole or Mackay voters. The conventional wisdom (backed up by internal polling data) is that most O'toole and Mackay voters will put each other's candidates higher on the ballot than Lewis and Sloan.
No matter what, Lewis' performance in this race means she has a bright future in the party if she wants it. Many Conservatives are thrilled to see a Black woman come forward in a prominent role and show a different side of the party. Lewis emerged out of political obscurity to run a strong campaign and make a name for herself.
But the fact remains that her path to victory is the narrowest of the three main contenders. She will need to upend expectations in order to win. On the other hand, Lewis has been doing that the whole race.