Will Belarus face the same fate as Ukraine?

Russia’s unpredictable nature is a wild card, writes Oleksandr Pankieiev

In recent days, many experts have been trying to compare the situation in Belarus with the events in Ukraine of 2013-14 and to predict how everything will unfold. There are definitely some similarities. First of all, both countries share the dark history of Soviet times. They also share a neighbour state that has declared itself a direct heir to the Soviet Union, including its material legacy. For Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are critical components of its mythology and the power image it projects both inside these countries and to the outside world.

Russia has never treated the independence of Belarus or Ukraine seriously and has tried to keep them under its direct influence and control. For Vladimir Putin, the collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” So the main question now is how Putin is planning to react to the developments in Belarus and to the protests against its president, Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

In late 2013, the European Union and Ukraine were finalizing a free-trade agreement, but the official signing of the documents never happened that year. At the time, the Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, suddenly decided on a radical change to the country’s vector and turned to Russia instead. Ukraine’s population did not accept this move and organized a massive peaceful protest in Kyiv that government forces attempted to suppress violently, killing more than 100 people.

As a result, Yanukovych fled to Russia and Putin used the opportunity to annex Crimea and invade the Donbass region; this war is now in its seventh year and has cost over 13,000 lives.

In the Belarusian case, there is President Lukashenka, who rigged that country’s elections so often that the Belarusians could not accept it this time and massively protested the results.

Lukashenka has been in power for 26 years. His overextended term was mostly possible because of extensive Russian economic support. But the Belarusian president has never allowed Russia to actually plant roots in the country. For example, there has never been a permanent Russian army base in Belarus, whereas the Ukrainian treaty allowing the continued presence of the Russian navy in Crimea was extended for 30 years (by Yanukovych) in 2012 — exactly one year before all the tragic events in Ukraine began.

For Putin, Lukashenka is definitely not the ideal candidate to deal with, for Lukashenka has never fully delivered what he has promised. He even dared to mock Putin several times. But for Putin it’s not an option to lose control over Belarus either.

Significantly, the protest in Belarus is not anti-russian, and one of its main demands is to have free democratic elections held in the country. President Lukashenka is not willing to accept it, but neither is he confident any more that his riot police can protect him or suppress the growing protest movement. The old methods of terror are not working any more. During these protests, thousands were arrested and several people reportedly killed. Despite all the brutality, people are still on the streets, in ever-increasing numbers.

President Lukashenka has phoned President Putin several times and warned him that the protests in Belarus are a grave security threat for Russia and that Russia has to be ready to help. Whether Russia is planning to intervene, and how it would do so, is still unclear.

Russia is under the burden of heavy sanctions after the annexation of Crimea as well as the ongoing war in the eastern part of Ukraine. Another set of sanctions could provoke unrest in Russia, which is something that Putin would not want, as he is seeking ways to remain in power after 2024, when his second consecutive term ends.

Many experts think Russia is hoping for an Armenian scenario in Belarus.

In 2018, Armenia also had anti-government protests, which led to a change of power. As a result, the opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan became the Armenian prime minister. Russia was very concerned about losing its influence over Armenia, but luckily for it, Nikol Pashinyan appears to be very co-operative.

In sum, some similarities do exist between the current events in Belarus and Ukraine in 2013-14, but it’s difficult to tell if the same fate awaits Belarus. What is easy to predict, though, is the unpredictability of Russia.