U.S. faces crisis whether Trump wins or loses
Anything’s possible since president has flouted law and ethics, Diane Francis says.
America and the world are in for a rough ride this year, regardless of whether President Donald Trump wins or loses the election.
Trump has staked his position and believes that if he loses, it will only be because he has been cheated. This is how he will justify ignoring the outcome and remaining as president if he fails to win the necessary votes. Conversely, if he wins, he will scupper the constitution and the rule of law, as he has already been doing for four years. Either way, America faces a crisis.
If Trump’s polling results remain low — despite his cultish Republican National Convention (RNC) — fasten your seat belts. A Trump facing possible defeat will ratchet up social unrest by dragging his feet on COVID-19 assistance, praising white armed militias and sending in unmarked troops to quell peaceful protests.
As violence and infections increase, he will likely try to postpone or cancel the election, citing a danger to the public that will only exist because he has been actively hampering efforts to allow Americans to vote by mail and fomenting insurrection. Experts say he cannot postpone the election, but he’s bypassed the constitution, Congress and the courts before, so anything’s possible.
Trump planted the seeds to justify this action this week, when the RNC featured a couple from St. Louis who were arrested for brandishing their weapons in front of their mansion as Black Lives Matter protesters peacefully passed by. Their message was that “they’re” coming to take away the suburbs, and was intended as a call-to-arms in a country with more guns than people.
Credible financial analysts have similarly dark views. Economist Nouriel Roubini, who’s nicknamed Dr. Doom, said recently that the United States was “one step away from food riots,” thanks to the anger over police violence and the economic collapse due to COVID-19. “There are now 40 million unemployed people in the U.S. who are rightly furious: white, brown, Black,” he said. “As I predicted months ago, this crisis will lead to riots and violence.”
He believes China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are behind this, accusing them of creating “altright” and conspiracy-theory websites and Facebook groups that are urging people to join armed vigilantes in Kenosha, Wis., and elsewhere. One person answered the call this week and is charged with killing two and wounding another.
Yet despite this growing turmoil, the stock markets continue to boom. As CNBC commentator Jim Cramer put it, the markets “are blind to social justice.”
But that will change, says geopolitical strategist Matt Gertken. In June, he wrote in Marketwatch that, “The U.S. is in the danger zone for populism and unrest,” and that the “election is inflaming the situation.”
Gertken’s “Unrest Table” is circulated to global investors and ranks nations on their susceptibility to social unrest based on factors such as a country’s vulnerability to COVID-19 damage, household grievances, income inequality and social immobility. Among developed nations, the U.S. ranks high in all these categories, just behind Greece. Not surprisingly, Canada is much more stable, clustered among Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan and France.
Gertken posits that, faced with a worsening economy and catalyzing episodes of social injustice, President Trump
“is doubling down on law and order.” In other words, he’s taking an aggressive stance against protests, even non-violent ones, against racial violence and bad policing, thus provoking a backlash, more mayhem, and more murder.
The good news is that Trump is behind in the race, but that’s also the bad news because he may escalate his fear-mongering. Unfortunately, even if Biden wins, Trump will likely demand recounts and litigate for weeks. Biden won’t concede. That would constitute a full-blown constitutional crisis.
Worse, even if Trump accepts defeat, he will remain president until Jan. 20, 2021, and will continue to have access to the nuclear codes until noon on that day, when Biden would be inaugurated. The question is: Who or what will protect the public, the economy, the markets and the world from a rogue, lame-duck president between Nov. 3 and Jan. 20?
The answer: nothing. Which is the biggest risk of all.