It's time to get serious on spending — and revenue

Premier Jason Kenney is a lot of things but wishy washy isn't one of them.

In an interview on Thursday, Kenney spoke forcefully about tackling COVID-19 in Alberta without any more major lockdowns and on his commitment to beat back Alberta's explosive fiscal deficit and debt.

Kenney said he has taken note of new statements questioning lockdowns by epidemiologists and public health experts like Professor David Nabarro, the WHO'S Special Envoy on COVID-19.

Nabarro recently said on British TV that lockdowns have had a massive negative impact on the world's most vulnerable people and may well double the number of malnourished children and impoverished people by next year.

“This is a terrible, ghastly global catastrophe, actually, and so we really do appeal to all world leaders: Stop using lockdown as your primary control method ...,” Nabarro said. “Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer.”

Kenney says he could not agree more strongly, including in Alberta's context. “The notion of government stepping in every time there is an increase in the case count to obliterate thousands of businesses and tens of thousands of jobs is, for me, massively counterproductive.”

In Alberta, coronavirus case counts have been rising since late May, which could spell more severe cases and deaths. But after peaking at 92 Albertans dead from COVID in April, I note we had 32 deaths in September and just eight so far in October.

The key is building public support for voluntary health measures, Kenney said. “I don't think you maintain that social acceptance if the government is acting like everybody's big boss and stepping in unpredictably and indiscriminately shutting down people's livelihoods.”

There will only be targeted, data-based advisories and restrictions here to stop future outbreaks, Kenney said. “What we've seen in some jurisdictions is this kind of trigger finger to target certain kinds of businesses and social activity without being supported by the data, and we will not do that here in Alberta.”

On Alberta's record debt, I put to Kenney the idea of Albertans forging a new social contract between right and left. This would see major cuts in government spending but also a provincial sales tax introduced to keep strong public services and pay down the debt.

“I think we have to have a debate about our fiscal future, which cannot completely exclude action on the revenue side,” Kenney said. “But first the government sector is going to have to show, we're going to have to show, that we can operate more effectively. There's no way any government should go to taxpayers and ask them to pay more when the state sector has been almost completely protected from the downturn of the past five years and the COVID crisis.”

Alberta's economy has shrunk by 20 per cent since 2015, half of that PRE-COVID, half of it Covid-related, Kenney said.

It's estimated about 16 per cent of working-age Albertans were on CERB federal pandemic relief in September. Almost all of the unemployed are private-sector workers, Kenney said, and private-sector incomes are down across the board.

“If we're all in this together that has to mean that the government sector can no longer be immune from what's happening in our economy and our capacity to pay for services.”

Only after cutting spending can the government plausibly ask people to pay more, Kenney said. “I don't disagree with the principle of framing it as a social contract where people could see finally that the government side is making some sacrifices and therefore they're prepared to pay a little bit more.”

Kenney doubts there's anywhere close to majority support for a PST. He added that by law any PST would have to be voted on by Albertans in a referendum.

I favour both a PST and significant cuts in government spending. Why? We can't keep spending, at record levels, money that we don't have and won't easily get.

We need to face up to this test by finding a middle path. This will surely tick off the hard core on the political right and the left, and fully please almost no one. But it will solve our taxing and spending problem in a fair manner.

Are we going to have a serious, adult conversation in Alberta about our brutal debt and deficit?

If you want to stay at the kid's table, keep howling at any reasonable suggestion on how to slash spending or increase taxes.

At the adult's table, that's what is being discussed.