BIGGEST SIGNINGS WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL JANUARY
MLB teams need more clear picture of revenue situation
On the list of things about Canadian sports culture that made an impression on Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro early in his time here was how swiftly NHL free agency moves.
In a normal year, when the calendar flips to July 1, business booms — and within a couple of days it's mostly loose ends to tie up.
“When I think about the benefit of a condensed off-season, looking at the NHL model, it would be preferable for a ( baseball) front office, I guarantee you that,” Shapiro said recently when asked about the tedious process his sport is currently slogging through. “But we're not making those decisions unilaterally.”
Shapiro's assessment is an understatement, and as he notes, ownership can move only as quickly as would-be clients and their representatives.
Baseball hasn't had a swift-moving free agent season for several years now, but the drag on the current session has been particularly plodding. And given the uncertainty surrounding how the 2021 season will unfold, many expect even the biggest signings to drag well into January. And given that much of the overall off-season business depends on how the higher end of the market shakes down, this could take a while.
The issues are many and complex, starting with when the 2021 campaign will begin and how many games ultimately will be on the calendar. Yes, there's a 162-game schedule in place, one that's due to begin at the end of March. But with the COVID-19 crisis in full attack mode, that version seems more wildly optimistic by the day.
At best there is uncertainty, which naturally has led to a tentative approach both from players and their agents on one side and the front offices of a majority of MLB teams. Before a client signs a long-term deal, it seems, clarity on what he's signing up for has become paramount. And good luck with that.
It's a two-way street, obviously, and the sense that ownership is gun shy, as well, until the structure of the upcoming season moves into sharper focus. It certainly feels as though the lack of certainty and the revenue implications has put up hurdles, if not a roadblock.
“My take is that as many teams as possible are waiting as long as they can to formulate what their revenue picture looks like before they say, `This is what our spending is going to look like,'” Shapiro said.
“There are a handful of teams, us included, that have ownership positions allowing us to pursue (free agents), regardless of that. But I think the lack of clarity for some teams in what their budget looks like has created some drag on the market. I think a lot more business than usual of higher magnitude will happen in January this year.”
All of this can change with one multi-year, eight-figure deal, but for the reasons articulated by Shapiro and echoed by super agent Scott Boras, among others, that could take a while. At his annual winter meetings news conference (held a week late and via Zoom on Tuesday) Boras added his voice, saying: “We're going to have a lot of late signings in this market.” And true to form, he lobbed blame at both ownership and the commissioner's office.
Over the coming weeks, we'll get a better idea on how that drag plays out, but for public consumption, timelines are in place, including the hard-to-fathom concept of pitchers and catchers being scheduled to report to spring training in less than two months. There are even full Grapefruit and Cactus League schedules in place, a glass-half-full outlook if ever there was one.
There are obvious reasons for skepticism on that count. As
USA Today reported this week (citing unnamed owners speaking frankly) much of the ability for the schedule to unfold may be tied to the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and some semblance of control of the virus in the
U.S., starting with Florida and Arizona.
The underlying worry is that there will be more labour bickering ahead, as well, especially as it becomes clear that stadiums will be mostly empty for much of the season, opening the prospect of owners pushing for a reduction of the 162-game schedule. For now, the Jays and others are planning for business as usual — until disruption intervenes.
“It is possible to (have spring training take place as scheduled) from a timing perspective, and that's what we're planning for at the moment ... until we get information otherwise,” Shapiro said. “But it won't be normal.”
Amid his usual bluster, Boras reiterated his belief in the Jays' plan, a change in tone that happened at approximately the same time his client Hyun-jin Ryu put ink to that four-year, Us$80-million contract.
“They really feel like the time is now for them,” Boras said when the topic of the Jays came up during his lengthy Zoom session with reporters. “I think they're in ready pursuit of players that can be additions to the core that they've built.”
As for determining how that pursuit plays out? It may take a while.