NFL draft class is deep with franchise-changing QBS
The quarterback class of the 2021 NFL draft blends simplicity and puzzlement. As happens every year near the conclusion of December, NFL fan bases are already starting to pin hopes on quarterbacks who have either wrapped up their college seasons or are preparing for bowl games and the College Football Playoff. This year, it may be wise not to attach too many expectations.
One team, likely the Jacksonville Jaguars, will have the great fortune of selecting Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, widely regarded as a prospect in the mould of can't-miss forebears Andrew Luck and John Elway. Another franchise, probably the New York Jets unless they opt to trade their pick, will be happy to snap up Ohio State's Justin Fields, whose combination of speed and arm strength defies easy comparison — unless they decide on BYU'S Zach Wilson, whose season-long breakout culminated Tuesday night with a nationally televised shredding of UCF'S defence.
Lawrence has long been anointed, and Fields is the likely, if less definitive, second pick. The search for a franchise quarterback beyond them grows murkier. Wilson, North Dakota State's Trey Lance, Alabama's Mac Jones and Florida's Kyle Trask all could become firstround picks, with Wilson nearly assured of that designation. They all have their supporters and detractors, and they all have eye-popping attributes and questions.
There has never been a better time to need a rookie quarterback. The sport has grown more efficient at developing NFL quarterbacks, and gradual rule changes have made it easier — easier, not easy — to learn the position at the highest level. Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts, all drafted last year, have all validated their franchise to varying degrees in less than a full season.
The off-the-field “presence” a quarterback projects can seem overly sanctified, but it matters, and it's unclear how much oneon-one interaction teams will have with prospects. None of that information-gathering weighs heavier than film, but it rounds out the most important decision a franchise can make.
Wilson underscores the cloudy nature of the quarterback class. At the start of the season, Pro Football Focus — which in recent years has been ahead of the curve on Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow as NFL prospects — did not have Wilson listed among its top 100 prospects. Now, it ranks him third behind only Lawrence and Fields.
It would be a surprise if any of the top six quarterbacks are picked outside the first two rounds, with Lawrence, Fields and Wilson exceedingly likely to be the first three off the board. After that, opinions will be fluid between now and April and vary from team to team. It is a fascinating class of quarterbacks, and they are about to evaluated during an unprecedented off-season.