Spread slowing, ICU stays rising
Positives found in latest COVID numbers, but still long way to go
COVID -19 is starting to spread at slower rates in most parts of Alberta, chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said Tuesday, although hospitalizations and ICU stays are still rising.
Alberta's R value for May 3 to May 9 dropped to 1 from 1.12, and the Edmonton Zone dropped to 0.96 from 0.99.
This metric shows how many people, on average, are infected by a COVID -19 positive patient — a rate below 1 shows the transmission declining.
For Calgary, that number is 1.06, meaning the rate is still going up.
“These are positive signs that transmission may be starting to slow, although the Calgary zone is still quite high,” she said Tuesday.
But the province still has a significant way to go in battling the third wave.
HOSPITALIZATIONS, ACTIVE CASES HIGH
Alberta's hospitalizations, active cases, and test positivity rates have climbed sharply over the last month.
While the rate of transmission is dropping in most areas, Hinshaw said cases are still high, as are the number of people testing positive for the disease.
“Having said that, it is important to note that our active case count is the second highest that it has ever been and our positivity rate is still very high,” she said.
Alberta has the highest active case rate of any Canadian province or territory: 565 per 100,000 people.
Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 have nearly doubled since April 11, reaching 705 by Tuesday, including 163 in ICU. There were 90 COVID -19 patients who needed intensive care by the same time last month.
The number of active cases remained high Tuesday at 24,998, up from about 14,200 on April 11. The Calgary Zone is the province's hot spot with 11,532 active cases, followed by the Edmonton Zone with 5,707.
Alberta's test positivity rate has also climbed since mid-april.
Of the 11,852 tests completed in the previous 24 hours, 1,449 came back positive Tuesday — a rate of 12.2 per cent. A month ago that rate was eight per cent.
Premier Jason Kenney, in response to a question about intensive care numbers, said while they aren't as high as December, the province could still hit the “red zone” where hospitals are overwhelmed.
Projections based on Alberta's current active cases show there could be up to 260 people in ICU by the end of May or early June, he said.
“If we start to get north of 300 patients in ICU, we start to head towards the red zone — you're in the red zone there — where we have to do mass cancellations of surgeries . ... We just can't afford to risk that,” he said at the news conference.
“And you know what? Let's pray for a miracle. Let's hope that all of a sudden, all of these new cases, — these 25,000 active cases — that everybody gets well and they don't end up in hospital. But the science tells us different.”
Alberta's COVID -19 deaths rose to 2,119 after three more fatalities. Across Canada, 24,714 people have died from COVID-19 and there have been nearly 1.3 million cases, according to Health Canada.
Meanwhile, Hinshaw confirmed Tuesday the province is reserving its supply of Astrazeneca vaccines for second doses.