Smith, Jean early favourites in UCP race, followed by Toews
Public likely gravitating to familiar faces in party leadership battle, poll suggests
The latest Angus Reid data gives Danielle Smith and Brian Jean an early edge in the UCP leadership race, but some political scientists say that reflects name recognition more than anything.
An online survey released Friday suggests that among those respondents who intend to vote for the UCP in the 2023 election, 34 per cent support went to Smith, followed by Jean at 33 per cent. Former finance minister Travis Toews had 25 per cent support.
Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said the poll shows the public migrating to familiar faces.
“It's because Jean and Smith had been campaigning for a much longer period of time, and as former party leaders, people in Alberta know who they are,” he said, adding it's “remarkable” that people don't appear to know more about Toews after his three years in cabinet.
Smith led the Wildrose Party and famously led a floor-crossing to the Progressive Conservative Party in 2014.
Jean, Fort Mcmurray-lac La Biche UCP MLA, also led the Wildrose Party and finished second in the 2017 UCP leadership race behind Premier Jason Kenney.
Lori Williams, also a political scientist at Mount Royal, said she's not surprised Smith and Jean are more recognizable in such an early survey, but added the numbers could still affect the fundraising efforts of those that are trailing.
“It makes it easier for Jean, for Smith and for Toews to raise money right now,” said Williams, adding it doesn't count out people further down the list, but it could make it more challenging for them to raise cash.
A new leader, and premier, will be chosen Oct 6.
Before the vote, the eight declared candidates will have to meet the requirements laid out by the party to be considered official candidates, including paying an entrance fee of $150,000, plus a $25,000 refundable good behaviour deposit.
The party is using a preferential voting system, in which members will rank candidates. If no one gets a simple majority in the first ballot, the candidate with the least preferred votes will be removed, and their voters' second-preference votes are then rolled into the other candidates' counts in subsequent ballots, until a winner is chosen.
Williams said that makes the race very unpredictable.
“We've seen countless times front-runners, people that everybody thought were just headed for a coronation, getting whooped,” said Williams.
Jean has said he will demand the federal government sit down at the table and open constitutional negotiations in a push to remove the equalization program.
Smith has promised her first move as premier will be to bring in a law authorizing the provincial government to refuse to enforce any federal law or policy attacking Alberta's interests or provincial rights.
Released Friday, the survey conducted between June 7 and 13 suggests 44 per cent of respondents across Alberta, regardless of what party they intended to vote for, said no one on the list of those potentially running for UCP leader was “appealing.”
Central-peace Notley Independent MLA Todd Loewen, who has launched a campaign to represent “blue truck Albertans,” was fourth on the list, with eight per cent support from UCP voters.
Toews came out of the gate with the endorsements of 23 UCP MLAS. Fellow former cabinet ministers Rebecca Schulz, MLA for Calgary- Shaw, and Rajan Sawhney, MLA for Calgary North-east, have also launched their own campaigns.
Federal Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner has hinted she's looking to enter the contest, but has yet to make a formal announcement.
The list put to survey respondents did not include Garner, former cabinet minister Leela Aheer, nor Amisk Mayor Bill Rock, but included Environment and Parks Minister and acting Finance Minister Jason Nixon, who has not declared an intention to run.
The Angus Reid survey suggests the UCP and NDP remain statistically tied for the second quarter in a row, with 42 per cent of respondents supporting the UCP, and 40 per cent saying they would vote for the NDP.
It was conducted among a representative randomized sample of 592 Albertans who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. Online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error plus or minus four per cent, 19 times out of 20.