Premier League championship Man City's to lose
Liverpool might have blown its best chance to stop Pep's ruthless finishers
As a Liverpool supporter who tries to be impartial here, there's no doubt that it's been hard to give Manchester City or its manager Pep Guardiola much credit. When you have an unlimited budget, and are facing 115 financial charges and have the best of everything, it's easy to see how and why they win.
But two weeks ago, Liverpool was in first place in the Premier League. They drew a game against Manchester United in which they were by far the better team, then lost at home last weekend to Crystal Palace.
Last week it was Arsenal in first place. They lost at home to Aston Villa.
So now Man City is in first by two points. Yes, they'll be crushed to have been knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid on Wednesday, but when City is in first place with less than 10 games to go, they don't just avoid losses, they never drop points. They are ruthless with a lead.
So, despite all sorts of deserved scrutiny about the financial advantages they've leveraged, Liverpool and Arsenal only have themselves to blame. City takes care of business, the others don't.
With eight games left, both those squads had a chance to close out the season, they didn't and that's on their players and managers. City was there for the taking, and didn't get taken.
Could there still be a twist in the tale? Of course, especially with all three teams yet to play Spurs, who are fighting for a European place.
But if history tells us anything it's that this is City's title to lose and when they've been in this position before — last year against Arsenal and twice in the last six years against Liverpool — they just don't let up.
In the next seven days, Liverpool faces Fulham and Everton, both on the road. Arsenal faces Wolves then Chelsea. City has only one match, against Brighton.
City and Arsenal were both knocked out of the Champions League on Wednesday, while Liverpool went into their Europa League match against Atalanta down 3-0 on aggregate, so there's potential for an emotional hangover. But City doesn't play this weekend in the league with an FA Cup semifinal to play, so you can give them the advantage in the league.
DOES LIVERPOOL HAVE ANY CHANCE OF WINNING?
Sadly, it doesn't look like it. One of the hallmarks of Jurgen Klopp, which you can't say of Guardiola's City, is his teams will often go through bad patches, not bad games. City may have a bad result, but they usually bounce back strong. When Klopp's teams stumble, it takes a while for them to get out of it.
Perhaps it's because he's such an emotional manager, and his team plays such an intense style, that when they lose their legs or momentum they crash. But going back to the United match, they were cruising at halftime, up just 1-0 but hadn't given up a shot on target and were buzzing all around the United goal, although they were exceptionally wasteful with good chances.
Next, a young player misplayed a sloppy pass with the goalie off the line and a long, fluky goal seemed to shatter their season. They could only draw that game, then looked listless and burned out in a 3-0 loss at home to Atalanta in the Europa League quarterfinal, and followed it up with a 1-0 home loss, their first home loss in two years in the league, to Crystal Palace.
They look like they've never played together before, panicky and out of ideas.
IS IT POSSIBLE CITY AND ARSENAL DROP POINTS?
Yes, but it looks even more likely Liverpool will drop even more. Fulham away on Sunday won't be easy, but the mid-week game at Everton's Goodison Park, less than a mile away from their own stadium, will see a crowd howling for blood and wanting to see Klopp off with a damaging victory. This is Everton who just lost 6-0 to Chelsea, but if they follow the historical pattern, they'll play like prime Real Madrid at home against Liverpool.
IS THE PREMIER LEAGUE IN FINANCIAL TURMOIL?
It would seem so, yes. Not in terms of revenues; they're bringing in record numbers there. But in terms of their rules.
Nottingham Forest sits one point above the relegation zone, Everton sits two points up. Both clubs had point deductions for serious financial violations which they're appealing.
So with six games to go, not Luton, which sits in that last relegation slot, nor Forest nor Everton know exactly what they have to achieve to be safe.
This is a mess with deep roots. Leeds, Leicester and Southampton, who were all relegated last season, have threatened the league, and Everton, with a US$500 million lawsuit if Everton isn't properly penalized for overspending.
The league has reportedly discussed going to a “luxury tax” style system instead of docking points for spending violations like Major League Baseball. With the unlimited funds available to Manchester City and Newcastle, this would just be a blank cheque to buy any and all players they want and pillage any other team of their stars.
And consider how much chicanery is still going on. Chelsea has spent $1.8 billion on players in the last 18 months and sits in ninth, 26 points behind the leaders. They've spent so much they're staring at financial penalties themselves, having to bring in revenues to balance expenditures.
So, they're reportedly selling two pricey hotels adjacent to the stadium that they purchased with a view to expanding the stadium. The kicker? They've sold them to a new holding company, also owned by the same group that owns Chelsea, paying the left pocket from money in the right one to balance the books.
It's such blatant corruption, if the Premier League doesn't fix it, they might as well just award the trophy to the team that can spend the most money.