Experts predict active season
Hurricane centre official says number, severity of storms could all come down to timing of ‘El Nino’
The severity of the Atlantic hurricane season may come down to one thing – timing – and maybe a little luck.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax is forecasting a more active storm season this year, mainly because the El Nino weather pattern may be a little later in getting established in the Pacific Ocean off South America.
Hurricane seasons tend to be quieter in El Nino years and more active in La Nina years – such as 2016.
“Right now we’re not dealing with an El Nino or La Nina. It’s a neutral situation. We’re going to an El Nino but there’s a lot of uncertainty as to whether we will actually be in an El Nino by the time we reach the peak hurricane
season,” meteorologist Bob Robichaud of Environment Canada said Thursday. “That’s why we’re expecting an above average season. If we’re in an El Nino by then we would expect a fairly weak season.”
Previously, forecasters were predicting a quieter season with a more active El Nino, but they are now less confident in the timing – suggesting the peak of hurricane season could be passed by the time El Nino is in place.
“The key here is the uncertainty with the status of El Nino at the peak of hurricane season,” Robichaud said. Robichaud said the 2016 season was quiet for Atlantic Canada in that there weren’t a lot of named storms that impacted land.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre in the United States also issued its hurricane forecast Thursday. It’s predicting another above average season with 11 to 17 named storms, of which five to nine could reach hurricane status. It’s possible two to four of them will be major storms of Category 3, 4 or 5.
A typical year is 12 storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
“The prediction is for an active hurricane season,” Robichaud said. “We have done an analysis to determine how many of these storms make it into our response zone and we have found that 35 to 40 per cent of the storms that form in the Atlantic actually make it into our area. That would mean four to six storms entering our response zone for this year.” Water temperatures in the Atlantic are warming up “fairly rapidly.”
Robichaud said forecasters want to reinforce the message for people to be prepared no matter where they live because heavy rain, high winds and power outages can cause a lot of disruption and damage. The hurricane season begins June 1 and continues until Nov. 30 with the most active months being August, September and October.