Democratic coalition won back House, fell short elsewhere

For much of the country, the 2018 midterm season is over. But unresolved races for governor in Georgia and Florida are raising major strategic questions for Democrats as they turn their attention to the upcoming battle for the White House.

As in other states, Democrats in Florida and Georgia drew record turnout in last week’s election. The coalition of suburban women, young people and minorities delivered the House to Democrats for the first time in nearly a decade.

But it wasn’t enough to score decisive victories in the closely watched races for governor in Georgia and Florida, where fresh-faced African-American Democratic candidates for governor trailed their older, white Republican competitors. In Georgia, Stacey Abrams hasn’t conceded her race while Andrew Gillum’s contest in Florida is undergoing a recount.

For some Democrats, the lesson emerging from the 2018 midterms is that massive turnout can win suburban House races across New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California. But the coalition that produced some success elsewhere may not be enough in Florida, the nation’s premier presidential battleground state, and Georgia, a state Democrats view with increasing optimism.

“It’s not a viable long-term plan to constantly rely on record turnout,” said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who led former President Barack Obama’s efforts in Florida. “We have a national issue we have to deal with.”

While Gillum and Abrams have much in common, they ran on different messages. Gillum, the 39-year-old mayor of Florida’s capital city, ran as an unapologetic member of the Trump resistance. He openly called for President Donald Trump’s impeachment. And he accused his Republican opponent, former Rep. Ron DeSantis, of blatant racism. Abrams, the 44-year-old former minority leader in Georgia’s House of Representative, highlighted her bipartisan credentials throughout her bid for governor. While she and Gillum embraced liberal policy priorities, such as “Medicare for All,” she promoted her work with Republicans in the state legislature, even highlighting a handshake with GOP Gov. Nathan Deal in a campaign ad.

Still, both were viewed as rising stars within the evolving Democratic Party, a new generation of Democratic leadership that could expand the party’s appeal among all voters.

Racial divisions appear to have limited their appeal, however. Both Gillum and Abrams won African-Americans and young voters by overwhelming margins. But they struggled with older, white voters, particularly noncollege-educated white voters, who make up the core of Trump’s political base.