Miscalculation can be costly
The Russian leadership probably built their Ukraine plan on the assumption that the rest of the world is so afraid of war that they will not intervene.
The timing of the invasion may also be linked to upcoming U.S. elections: if Biden appears weak, his party may lose seats. Putin probably hoped that a blitzkrieg in Ukraine will bolster his image at home.
His miscalculation cost him dearly. The socio-economic consequences for Russia were tremendous. Bank accounts were frozen, international SWIFT transactions were blocked, airspace and airports were closed to Russian planes, the value of their currency fell dramatically, interest rates doubled, exports decreased, their population panicked about available cash, and demonstrated against the war.
Putin also miscalculated the patriotic resistance his forces would encounter from Ukrainians, who fight for the existence of their country and culture.
Russian troops do not have that commitment.
Ukraine inflicts considerable damage and casualties to Russian forces with the help of weapons from the West. Two Russian ships have been sunk. Many tanks stand deserted.
Putin did not reckon with the power of photographic images – now that most people have a mobile phone with builtin camera.
Other leaders with expansion ideas watch carefully. If the West reacts weakly, China may consider taking Taiwan.
Western countries must consider the cost of not doing enough to help Ukraine. They may also miscalculate.
In Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, the U.S. miscalculated the duration, cost, and consequences of intervention. Many lives were lost, cost escalated, and expensive equipment stayed behind.
In the Bible, several small armies defeated large ones by valiantly fighting for what is right. Abraham overcame the armies of five kings with his 318 men, using a night assault (Gen. 14). Gideon thrashed 135,000 Midianites with his 300 men, also using a night attack (Judges 7-8). David pursued the Amalekites with his 600 men (of which 200 collapsed half-way), destroyed the raiders and rescued their wives, children, and goods (1 Sam. 30).
In all three cases, they took back what a strong adversary had stolen from them.
The Bible admonishes us not to despise the day of small things (Zech. 4:10). A baby in a basket on the Nile was the beginning of Israel’s liberation from slavery. A baby in a manger was the beginning of salvation for millions. Twelve hesitant disciples started world-wide evangelism. When Gutenberg printed the first few Bibles with his new invention, it was the beginning of massive dispersion of the Bible and other literature.
We must not under-estimate our adversary or miscalculate what is needed for victory, but with resolve rooted in God, and with realistic preparation, we can overcome obstacles and reach our goals. We must step out of our comfort zones.
Jacob Van Zyl of Lethbridge is a retired counsellor and the author of several faith-based books