UCP increasing lead in latest poll

The UCP is increasing its support in the latest poll projection by the independent 338Canada project, which offers a statistical model of projections created by a professor in Montreal.

The project makes its projection based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data, according to the website.

The 338Canada model uses “a mostly proportional swing with regional adjustments,” says the website, and demographic data with “careful considerations given to demographics of each district such as median and average household income, age distribution, language most spoken at home” and other factors. The data is used “to make statistical correlations of voting intention swings between regions and districts,” says the website.

As of May 17, the UCP was projected to get 50 per cent of the popular vote, up two per cent from May 8. The NDP was also up two per cent with the Alberta party losing projected votes in the latest poll.

The latest seat projection shows the UCP getting 49 and the NDP 38. The last poll predicted the UCP would win 45 and the NDP 42.

As in the May 8 poll, the latest shows Lethbridge East is considered to be a tossup with both Nathan Neudorf of the UCP and Rob Miyashiro of the NDP predicted to get 49 per cent of the votes. Neudorf trailed slightly in the May 8 poll. Liberal Helen Mcmenamin is predicted to get less than one per cent of votes.

The UCP and NDP have equal 50/50 odds of winning the seat.

Lethbridge West projections haven’t changed with NDP candidate Shannon Phillips predicted to win 52 per cent of the vote while the UCP’s Cheryl Seaborn is projected to get 42 per cent.

The poll suggests Phillips has an 89 per cent chance of retaining her seat in the Alberta legislature.

In Livingston-Macleod, the UCP has increased its projected share of the popular vote with that party now expected to earn 64 per cent, a slight increase of three per cent. The NDP is expected to get 29 per cent of votes and the Alberta Party three per cent.

Odds of the UCP winning that seat are 99 per cent.

In Taber-Warner, the UCP has increased its projected votes in the latest poll with that party now expected to get 75 per cent, up five per cent from May 8. The NDP is predicted to win 21 per cent.

The poll gives the UCP a 99 per cent chance of winning the seat.

The UCP has also increased its projected seat total in Cardston-Siksika. That party now is predicted to win 68 per cent of votes, up five per cent from May 8. The NDP is predicted to get 30 per cent of votes. The UCP is given a 99 per cent chance of winning the riding.