WORST-CASE SCENARIOS, FROM BANFF TO BAFFIN ISLAND
When it comes to BY ROSEMARY COUNTER · educating our country about climate change, scientists face a distinctly Canadian problem of scope: while most of us have a general understanding that the climate is changing, it’s all too easy for a Yukoner to dismiss rising sea levels as someone else’s problem, or a Torontonian to be completely apathetic to Arctic permafrost. “Many of the changes don’t have a direct, tangible connection to most people in Canada—they’ve probably never even seen permafrost—so it can be hard to appreciate its impact,” says Greg Flato, senior research scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
To conquer apathy in action, “Canada’s Changing Climate Report,” released by the government this spring, zoomed in on the specific effects of climate change in all corners of Canada. In each, they predicted two futures: one if we dramatically slash carbon emissions starting right now, and another if we do nothing. Scientists predict temperatures will rise 1.8 degrees in a low-emission scenario and 6.3 degrees in a high one. “Our choices now affect what our lives will look like at the end of the century,” Flato says. If we choose poorly, what might Canada look like in 2100? We imagined six famous Canadian landmarks in a much hotter future.
PEGGY’S COVE, NOVA SCOTIA
The first thing a tourist might notice in 2100 at Nova Scotia’s Peggy’s Cove is—not surprising in the least—an ever-higher sea level slowly swallowing the picturesque lighthouse. Sea levels of southern Atlantic Canada will experience the largest local sea-level rise in the country; at the same time, the region itself is slowly shrinking about a millimetre per year. “Over the course of a century, that’s 10 centimetres, and under a high-emission scenario, sea level could rise upwards of a metre,” calculates Blair Greenan, research scientist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The lighthouse today sits only about five metres above sea level, he notes, so visitors in 2100 might not reach it without getting wet.
Hopefully the lighthouse still functions, as rising sea levels will likely bring more intense precipitation events. “Whether those events will be accompanied with stronger winds, we don’t know,” says Greenan, adding a very concerning thought coming from a scientist: “Nobody’s sure about storms.” More certain are floods: “In general, for every 10 centimetres of sea-level rise, you have a doubling or tripling of flooding events.” A severe flood that would have occurred once every 50 years on the East Coast could be expected annually in 2100.
But it’s not all bad for the East Coast—especially if you’ve got a taste for seafood. More carbon dioxide from human emissions in the air ends up in the ocean, where a chemical reaction makes the water more acidic. Ocean dwellers in a shell, including oysters, crabs and lobsters, will likely find warmer waters more hospitable. At the same time, a lower-calcium diet will make it harder for them to build a strong and protective exoskeleton. There will be more lobsters and they’ll be easier to catch, which could lead to a more lucrative fishery. Maybe eat that roll on the wharf, though, as more lobster bait likely means more—and bigger—predators.“There are some species that will benefit from higher temperatures and others that they’ll be detrimental to,” says Greenan. “It’s a complex ecosystem and we just don’t know.”