THE OKANAGAN VALLEY, BRITISH COLUMBIA

In some places in the world, notes UBC Agriculture prof Sean Smukler, climate change could actually be good. “British Columbia is one of those places,” he says, and, especially if you happen to be a farmer, the five-degree temperature jump predicted for the West Coast might not be as bad as it seems. “By 2100, a lot of forest here could be grassland,” he says. Provided we develop the technology and stockpile the resources we’ll need, the interior of B.C. could be a lush green garden with long growing seasons and warmer temperatures that accommodate the exotic fruits and vegetables we can’t grow now.

“These days, much of our vegetables are shipped up from California,” says Smukler. “In the future, if we’re reliant on California’s ability to plan for climate change, we’ll sort of be at their mercy.” Recent years have proved that weather in the American south immediately affects Canadian shoppers—a cool period in California is the reason a bunch of celery now costs upwards of $5.99—but all that could be avoided in 2100. “If we’re smart and productive, we’ll take advantage of longer growing seasons, learn how to best manage our water, and take control of the pests that will inevitably start invading our crops.”

Yup, our tropical agricultural paradise of B.C.-grown oranges, avocados, pistachios or olives will bring with it some less appetizing realities of pests: alongside the usual offenders like rats and roaches, expect a new cohort of “organisms that impact our crops that we’ve never seen before,” says Smukler. Whether weeds, insects or diseases, warmer weather is great news for many pests who would otherwise be controlled by a regular winter frost.

And what about wine? There likely will be vino to take the edge off. “Of all the producers out there, grape growers have a very high capacity to adapt,” explains Smukler. “Both because of the chemical constituency of the grapes themselves and because of the capital that growers have to prepare.”