BAFFIN ISLAND
Perhaps there’s no corner of Canada that will feel climate change more than the Arctic, which is warming about three times faster than the average global rate. That’s due to “arctic amplification,” which sounds a lot more complicated than it is: “It’s not rocket science and it’s very simple,” says Climate Change Canada’s arctic research scientist Chris Derksen. “When it comes to snow and ice, the temperature increase means less snow, as all Canadians know.” This might be good news to urbanites shovelling their driveways, but in 2100, the lack of sea ice—that’s frozen ocean water, not icebergs that break off glaciers—will be the biggest change and challenge for Canadians who live in the North.
“By the end of the century, it won’t be surprising to see periods of time with no sea ice. None,” says Derksen. Sea ice, ice caps and ice shelves will be something of a legend in the minds of visitors, but their loss will have real and immediate consequences for locals. “People in the North travel quite often over ice to get to other communities, so they won’t be doing that,” says Derksen. They’ll have to instead arrive by boat. There will be many of those in 2100, since ships will travel freely through open water from Europe and Russia and beyond. While perhaps good for the economy, notes Derksen, an Arctic passage presents all kinds of unknown risks to our sovereignty and environment. More ships and unwieldy ice could mean more leaks and spills, and we can expect Canada’s searchand-rescue bill to skyrocket.
Walruses, seals and polar bears who used sea ice as their main habitat will miss the frozen water even more than humans. “Polar bears will be waiting all summer for that sea ice, because they hunt on land, and they’ll be licking their chops and waiting,” says Derksen. Since there will be none, hungry bears will have to look elsewhere. “That’s when they move into town and start foraging through garbage bins.” Some bad news about your bear-safe haven: it’s built atop permafrost, which was sturdy frozen soil a century ago, but in 2100 has thawed and weakened considerably. “This will impact roads, runways and houses, and have serious implications for the stability of the land,” says Derksen. And in case that’s not scary enough, when the walls of your house fall down, there will be a hungry polar bear ready and waiting.