ROSS HALLORAN, PORT CARLING

This veteran agent was preparing for the pandemic to pummel the Muskoka market. Instead, it exploded.

What was the state of the Muskoka market in early 2020?

Prices were increasing by about 15 per cent a year, and multiple offers were an anomaly. My brokerage was getting ready for the Spring Cottage Life Show—which is like the Super Bowl of cottage-country real estate— before it was cancelled in mid-March. I joked to my team that we might have to host the odd bake sale to make it through the year. Then the exact opposite happened.

How so?

Once the provincial ban on short-term rentals lifted in June of 2020, our vacation-property company, Muskoka District Rentals, had a huge uptick in business. We sold all of our summer inventory—110 properties—in three weeks. It usually takes us six months to do that. We also saw a huge increase in sales of boat-access-only cottages, plus properties that needed work or had topography challenges. In any other market, those places would have sold at 90 per cent of their list prices; ours were going for $200,000 over. By the fall, agents were holding back offers until a week a er listing dates to see what the competition would do. We hadn’t seen that before.

How is the market looking now?

The starter-cottage market— properties priced between $800,000 and $1.7 million—is still competitive, and there’s demand for very high-end properties over $8 million. We’re seeing a bit of cooling in the $2 million to $8 million window; those buyers are mostly affluent families from the Greater Toronto Area. With the war in Ukraine, inflation and rising interest rates, they’re taking a pause.

What about younger buyers? We’re seeing more people in their 30s and 40s and young families, especially for cottages priced at $1 million or less. Millennials are getting support from the bank of mom and dad to buy cottages, and some are living there full time and working remotely, which used to just be the case for emptynesters. Full-timers are usually looking to be within 30 minutes of town, and they want good access to roads, not having to hike through kilometres of bush.

What would you tell buyers who are looking to enter the Muskoka market now? In 2020, I would have told them to act quickly; now, I encourage due diligence. Don’t jump the gun just to beat the competition.