Alberta votes: Jostling for position in week one
Fault lines have been drawn in the first week of Alberta’s provincial election campaign, shaping each party’s messaging for the coming weeks.
Medicine Hat College political analyst Jim Groom says allegations that former UCP leadership candidate Jeff Callaway colluded with Jason Kenney’s victorious campaign as a “kamikaze candidate” to attack runner-up Brian Jean have been lurking in the background of the campaign’s initial days.
The night before the writ dropped, star Calgary UCP candidate Caylan Ford dropped out of the race after private messages expressing sympathy for white supremacists were leaked, which Groom says was also unhelpful for the UCP.
He said he didn’t expect NDP leader Rachel Notley to call the election Tuesday, because it was the same day as the federal budget, which would naturally overshadow a provincial election campaign.
“She was probably balancing off the controversies that are circling around the UCP at the current time, thinking, ‘Can I benefit from this now, or can I wait and hope that it gets worse?’” he said. “There’s no perfect time to call an election.”
The election announcement may have temporarily overshadowed the Callaway and Ford controversies, but Groom says the New Democrats have the opportunity to constantly remind voters of it on the campaign trail.
“I would have thought they’d want to ride that a little bit, but on the other hand when you’re campaigning you can bring that up in every speech if you want to,” he said.
Groom says the parties will work to shore up their bases before reaching out to swing voters in the campaign’s waning days.
University of Lethbridge political scientist Geoffrey Hale says modern election campaigns follow a certain formula.
“Each major party is trying to set the tone and themes for the campaign,” said Hale. “The goal is to stay on your message and limit the degree to which you have to respond to the other side’s message.”
He calls these “the mechanics of modern media campaigning.”
This means the UCP will focus on the economy and pipelines, while the NDP will emphasize Kenney’s flaws as a leader, Hale said.
“They can each read polls,” he said. “Mr. Kenney is less popular than the conservatives as a whole and Ms. Notley is more popular than the NDP, so each one is play-9 ing to their strength and opponent’s perceived weakness.”
Derek Fildebrandt’s Freedom Conservative Party will also aim their attacks at Kenney, while Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel struggles for voters’ attention.
Hale says Notley has a very tough road ahead of her, but that her re-election shouldn’t be ruled out entirely.
“The NDs have to pull the poker equivalent of an inside straight to win this election, based on what we can see in the polls,” he said. “It’s not impossible. We’ve seen significant shifts in the polls in the last two elections (2012 and 2015), however she has to play her cards almost perfectly.”
Hale says to look for the parties making more specific policy proposals next week.