Trump’s pre-pandemic economic performance should earn him a ‘C’

Dear editor,

Supporters of Donald Trump greatly exaggerate his economic success and are blind to facts that indicate otherwise.

First is the fact that Trump inherited an economy that had largely recovered from the Great Recession (2008–09) and was gaining strength. Evidence of this is the 76 months of continuous job growth in place at the end of the Obama presidency, a trend that continued under Trump.

Second is the fact that the Trump tax cuts did not result in the 4-6% GDP growth that Trump predicted. In Trump’s first three years of his presidency (2017-19 — prior to the pandemic) GDP growth averaged 2.5%, which is only marginally better than the 2.2% growth over Obama’s last four years. The GDP growth under Trump was a continuing trend from the last four years of the Obama presidency. And it should be noted that Trump’s trade wars were a drag on the economy limiting growth to just 2.5%.

Third is the fact that the tax cuts did not pay for themselves as Trump claimed they would. The USA federal deficit increased to $984 billion (4.6% of GDP) in 2019 from $585 billion (3.1% of GDP) in 2016. Overall debt increased to $22.7 trillion (106% of GDP) in 2019 from $19.6 trillion (104% of GDP) in 2016. There is no doubt that the increased deficit/debt contributed to the modest growth of 2.5% over Trump’s first three years and to any other positive economic indicators during this time. In a healthy economy the deficit is expected to shrink, which it has not under Trump.

Considering these factors, the overall Trump pre-pandemic economic performance is no better than a grade of C.

Denis Hoffman Medicine Hat