Whomever wins, a move to the centre is coming
TORONTO – Here’s the irony about the Sturm und Drang surrounding whether or not the NDP should transform itself for the sake of winning power in 2015, or remain as it was, pristinely idealistic: The change is already under way. It can’t be stopped.
It began last May 2 when the party led by Jack Layton achieved a historic secondplace finish, winning 103 seats, 59 of them from Quebec, and Official Opposition status. It has unfolded by degrees since and will continue to do so, regardless of what any of the candidates for the leadership have said or promised over the past six months. It’s bigger than them.
The lead-up to this weekend’s convention – in particular, the level of engagement and curiosity (among party members, politicos and media only so far, mind you) surrounding the outcome – has been markedly more energetic than previous NDP leadership contests, no? The reason, confirmed by an Environics poll released Wednesday showing the New Democrats neck-and-neck with the Tories in popular support, is that the person made leader this weekend could realistically become prime minister. That is a first for this party.
Another possible reason for heightened interest: Despite there being a perceived front-runner, Thomas Mulcair, who has a perceived arch-foe, Brian Topp, the outcome really is anybody’s guess. Any one of five candidates, with Peggy Nash, Nathan Cullen and Paul Dewar rounding out the top five, could conceivably win.
Unlike old-fashioned conventions in which the preparatory work was all about delivering delegates who could be moved in blocks on successive ballots, in this case the 130,000-strong NDP membership has already been voting online and by mail for three weeks. In the advance polls voters were asked to rank their choices in order of preference: Those results are now fixed.
Because the advance voting didn’t yield as large a turnout as many expected, the overwhelming majority of members will cast their ballots online. Only 3,500 or so members, possibly fewer, are expected to physically attend the convention. In theory, this makes it harder for groupthink to set in, and therefore less likely that any candidate can deliver “their” vote to any other candidate.
There is no way of predicting, in other words, where Dewar’s supporters will go if he drops off in the early going, or where Niki Ashton’s vote will go when she drops off. Outrider Martin Singh has urged his supporters to support Mulcair as a second choice, but even that isn’t guaranteed.
There’s an expectation, among party insiders, that the so-called party establishment vote will coalesce around one of either Nash, Topp or Dewar, with Nash and Topp the favourites. Likewise some believe that Ashton’s people will move to Cullen as a second choice, because both are from the West, sunny optimists and young. But that is speculation.
Any one of five candidates could conceivably come out on top.
Mulcair’s hopes, insiders say, depend on his winning at least 35 per cent on the first ballot. If he doesn’t manage that, it’s wide open.
Here’s the curious thing, though, about these folks: They’re not really all that different at the policy level. Mulcair has been defined as the candidate most likely to move the NDP to the centre – but his platform belies this, to a degree. Centrist yes, but compared to who? Topp, the party establishment candidate who supposedly hews to old-fashioned socialist values, worked in Roy Romanow’s Saskatchewan governments that delivered balanced budgets. And whoever wins will be compelled, by the exigencies of being the government in waiting, to offer more responsible economic policy than the NDP has traditionally. (Though Jack layton pushed the party to propose balanced budgets, a fact seemingly lost on those wringing their hands about a move to the centre).
Without question, the party will face a much tougher challenge in Quebec if Mulcair loses. In that event the question will be whether the new leader can bring him in as a strong Quebec lieutenant and keep him onside, but also in line.
But even setting aside the Mulcair factor, the New Democrats are certain to be contenders in 2015, by virtue of having 102 sitting MPS, thousands of new members and the bully pulpit of being the Official Opposition. This day-to-day reality, as it sets in, can’t help but pull the party further toward the pragmatic centre. The compulsion to win power, which is actually what politicians are supposed to do, will take care of the rest.