Trudeau’s Liberals would tie PCS
Gazette-le Devoir poll shows leadership contender could be a big factor in the party’s national revival
Think Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper in a dead heat.
Had Canadians gone to the polls this week with Trudeau at the helm of the federal Liberals, a Léger Marketing poll conducted for The Gazette and Le Devoir suggests the party now in third place would have captured 31 per cent of the popular vote — the exact same share as Harper’s Tories.
The poll of 1,500 people, conducted online in all regions of the country between Monday and Thursday, found support for the Liberals would have jumped by 13 per cent nationally and 11 per cent in Quebec if elections had been held this week with Trudeau as leader.
While a Liberal Party led by Trudeau would eat into support from all other political parties, the poll suggests Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats would take the biggest hit, slipping by seven per cent in Quebec and six per cent across the country.
By comparison, Trudeau’s closest rival in the leadership race, Marc Garneau, though respected and reasonably well known, would have boosted support for the Liberals by just one per cent nationally, leaving the Conservatives in power and the NDP as the official opposition.
Not surprisingly, results show Trudeau is by far the best known among 12 Canadians vying for the top job in the federal Liberals.
Pollster Sébastien Dallaire said Liberal leadership candidates have their work cut out for them if they want to catch up with Trudeau in popularity and the Canadian public’s imagination.
“He begins with a major head start,” Dallaire said. “He is so well known that until the race really gets going and other candidates start to elaborate on their ideas, it is difficult for anyone else to make an impression. It’s very early, but right now Justin Trudeau has a very commanding lead.”
More than eight of 10 people polled said they knew who Trudeau was. Of those, 56 per cent said they had a good opinion of him and 26 per cent a bad one. Sixty-two per cent of people polled said they knew of Garneau, the member of Parliament for Westmount–Ville-Marie, who was Canada’s first astronaut. One in 10 people had heard of Martha Hall Findlay, the best-known of the other leadership hopefuls.
The survey found the son of Pierre Trudeau may benefit from a mostly positive appreciation of his father’s political legacy among voters from coast to coast. Indeed, just under half of voters in Quebec appear to have a soft spot for the elder Trudeau, who was often vilified for his decision to repatriate the constitution against the wishes of René Lévesque’s Parti Québécois government. When asked about Justin Trudeau’s political credentials, four in 10 people polled said they believe he has what it takes to become prime minister and understands the realities of ordinary Canadians. However, just 27 per cent said they believe he is ready to take on the prime minister’s job.
The survey found voters in Quebec and Atlantic Canada were most apt to express strong dissatisfaction with the Conservative government. Sixty-seven per cent of Quebecers and 69 per cent of people in Atlantic Canada said they were unhappy with the federal government, compared with 59 per cent of Manitoba and Saskatchewan residents, 52 per cent of British Columbians, 50 per cent of Ontarians and 39 per cent of Albertans. Overall, 55 per cent of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the Harper government, a three-point improvement since last April.
Dallaire said that gap among regions on how citizens view the Harper government has been fairly consistent in polls conducted since the election in May 2011.
One new wrinkle has been a 12 per cent drop in support for the NDP in Quebec. That’s the strongest decrease yet and should “be a source of worry for them,” said Dallaire. He suggests one reason may be heightened media attention for the Liberals as the leadership race heats up, while the NDP scrambles to get attention.
pcurran@ montrealgazette.com Twitter: peggylcurran