Returning MPS face unexpected change
Political ground has shifted in six weeks during which the Commons sat empty
OTTAWA — Canada’s MPs will return to the House of Commons Monday to find that the political ground beneath their feet has shifted in the six weeks they were absent.
When they last gathered in the chamber on Dec. 12, the hot topics were whether the Chinese should be allowed to buy into Canada’s oilpatch, and whether the government had bungled a multibilliondollar plan to purchase F-35 fighter jets.
For Prime Minister Stephen Harper, approaching the midterm of his majority mandate, the new political dynamics could force a readjustment of priorities and demand some skilful political manoeuvring.
As MPs spill into the Commons chamber on Monday, some key questions will be at the forefront:
Will the Conservative government, confronted by an angry and revitalized community of First Nations peoples, take dramatic action on the aboriginal issue?
As the economy wanes, will Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s budget contain further spending cuts beyond last year’s fiscal blueprint as part of a political plan to eliminate the deficit by the next election, in 2015?
Will Canada’s imminent signing of a controversial free-trade deal with Europe spark complaints that Harper has given up too much?
How far will Canada go to help France and other countries in their military assault against Islamist rebels in Mali? (Use of a Canadian C-17 transport plane to transport French troops has been extended to mid-February, and a Commons committee will hold public hearings next week to review further actions.)
Has Harper’s cabinet wandered into dangerous territory with more ethical lapses, such as Flaherty’s letter to the CRTC lobbying for a company in his riding? (The opposition will press Harper on why his finance minister is still in cabinet).
Will the NDP, which formed the official Opposition two years ago, secure that status with a credible performance to make it a government-inwaiting for voters who want to turf the Tories in 2015?
Will the once-mighty Liberals, who have steadily lost seats in all four elections since 2004 and are now in third place, get their mojo back with the election of a new leader in April?
This week, spokesman for the three main parties offered their assessments of what lies ahead.
Government House Leader Peter Van Loan said the Tories are determined to stay focused on the issue that matters most to Canadians.
“The economy will continue to be top of mind and the most important priority. Jobs, growth and long-term economic prosperity.”
Van Loan said that although Canada is in good shape compared to other countries, the global economy remains uncertain — with “looming threats” from the U.S. fiscal crisis and the debt problems in the euro zone.
“We look at all of those things and, as a trading country, we’re very dependent on others. The bottom line for Canadian families is that they have a job.”
Van Loan said he doesn’t expect “a great deal” of change in the legislative agenda on aboriginal issues.
The prime minister met Jan. 11 with senior First Nations leaders and promised further meetings in coming weeks. Van Loan said this has opened up an important “process” to discuss treaties.
But opposition parties say aboriginal issues must be centre stage.
“Aboriginal affairs has to be on everybody’s priority list for the spring,” NDP Leader Tom Mulcair said.
“The solutions are there. The longer we wait, the harder it is. With demographics on reserves, young people are increasingly frustrated.”
Mulcair said the upcoming session is a “pivotal” period, a time for Canadians to begin comparing the alternatives for the next election.
“I have to work every day to convince Canadians that they can trust us to form a good, competent, capable government,” Mulcair said.
“When you compare what was done on the F-35 debacle. When you watch their goon-like behaviour in the House, Canadians deserve better. We know we can do better.”
Interim Liberal leader Bob Rae said many Canadians have “fallen behind and are not exactly included in the front row of the recovery.
“I still find that there is a cocoon of complacency that surrounds this government. It looks at the rest of the world and says we’re doing better. All you can say is, the best is still not very good.”
As well, Rae said he will push hard for meaningful action to “overcome the institutionalized poverty” that now affects Canada’s aboriginals.
It’s Rae’s final session as interim party leader. Many have anointed Justin Trudeau the likely winner of a Liberal leadership race.
If that happens, yet another question emerges: Can a younger generation — one led by the son of a former prime minister — make a difference to Canadian politics?